Cremonese vs Padova Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Cremonese 3-1 Padova.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Cremonese, 27% draw, 21% Padova — fair odds of 1.92, 3.70 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Cremonese at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cremonese vs Padova
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22F. Agazzi
- 38A. VogliaccoD
- 15M. BianchettiD
- 5S. LupertoD
- 21Y. RocchettiD
- 16F. GerliM
- 20S. PontissoM
- 10A. LicinaM
- 14T. BertiM
- 27J. VandeputteM
- 90F. BonazzoliF
- 12M. FestaG
- 59R. LiberaliG
- 13Fellipe JackD
- 6F. BaschirottoD
- 2M. ThorsbyM
- 18M. CollocoloM
- 8S. Lottici TessadriM
- 11M. DjuricF
- 71S. EliaM
- 22A. SorrentinoG
- 27A. DellavalleD
- 5M. LovatoD
- 58C. PastinaD
- 24L. CarissoniM
- 14M. PompettiM
- 21E. ZuelliM
- 8P. FusiM
- 34M. CocchiM
- 9L. MoroF
- 10G. CaprariF
- 1L. MouquetG
- 32F. SgarbiD
- 18E. SillettiD
- 72C. FaedoD
- 6G. GiuntiM
- 7K. VarasM
- 25N. GalazziM
- 74D. MarcoliniM
- 23F. Di MarianoM
Form going into Cremonese vs Padova
Cremonese
All competitions we cover
- L0-3Modena28 August 2026
- L0-1away to Empoli22 August 2026
Padova
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Hellas Verona29 August 2026
- W1-0away to Pisa23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Cremonese | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 15 |
| 10 | Padova | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cremonese vs Padova
- 9 February 2019Cremonese 0–0 PadovaSerie B
- 23 September 2018Padova 1–1 CremoneseSerie B
Leading scorers: Cremonese and Padova
Cremonese
GoalsAssists
- F. Bonazzoli62
Padova
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Cremonese beat Padova 3–1. The model had made a win for Cremonese its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: F. Bonazzoli 1' for Cremonese, A. Licina 5' for Cremonese, M. Pompetti 45' for Padova, F. Bonazzoli 56' for Cremonese. On expected goals it finished 2.46–1.30.