Chicago Fire vs Charlotte Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Chicago Fire 2-1 Charlotte.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Chicago Fire, 27% draw, 27% Charlotte — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Chicago Fire at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Chicago Fire vs Charlotte
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Chris BradyG
- 2Leonardo BarrosoD
- 16Joel WatermanD
- 3Jack ElliottD
- 15Andrew GutmanD
- 11Philip ZinckernagelM
- 42Dje Tah D'AvillaM
- 6Anton SalétrosM
- 19Jonathan BambaM
- 9Robert LewandowskiF
- 17Robin LodF
- 12Puso DithejaneF
- 22Mauricio PinedaD
- 7Maren Haile-SelassieM
- 44Josh CohenG
- 24Jonathan DeanD
- 14Viktor RadojevićD
- 5Samuel RogersD
- 35Sergio OregelM
- 20Jason ShokalookF
- 1Kristijan KahlinaG
- 14Nathan ByrneD
- 44Morrison AgyemangD
- 22Henry KesslerD
- 15Harry ToffoloD
- 17Luca De La TorreM
- 8Ashley WestwoodM
- 28Djibril DianiM
- 16Pep BielF
- 9Idan ToklomatiF
- 11Liel AbadaF
- 23David SchneggD
- 37Rodolfo AlokoF
- 13Brandt BronicoM
- 7Archie GoodwinF
- 21Tyler MillerG
- 4Andrew PrivettD
- 35Will ClearyD
- 20Baye CoulibalyM
- 25Tyger SmallsF
Form going into Chicago Fire vs Charlotte
Chicago Fire
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to New York City FC25 July 2026
- L2-3away to Inter Miami22 July 2026
Charlotte
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to New York Red Bulls25 July 2026
- D2-2Atlanta United FC23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 64 | 54 | +10 | 55 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 66 | 51 | +15 | 54 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Chicago Fire vs Charlotte
- 29 June 2025Chicago Fire 3–2 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- 17 May 2025Charlotte 1–4 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 2 October 2024Charlotte 4–3 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 16 May 2024Chicago Fire 0–1 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- 8 October 2023Chicago Fire 0–2 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Chicago Fire and Charlotte
Chicago Fire
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 64 league goals as a side.
Charlotte
GoalsAssists
- I. Toklomati Giorno155
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Chicago Fire beat Charlotte 2–1. The model had made a win for Chicago Fire its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: P. Biel 18' for Charlotte, R. Lewandowski 20' for Chicago Fire, R. Lewandowski 68' for Chicago Fire. On expected goals it finished 1.59–0.83.