St. Louis City vs Real Salt Lake Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: St. Louis City 1-1 Real Salt Lake.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% St. Louis City, 25% draw, 17% Real Salt Lake — fair odds of 1.72, 4.00 and 5.88.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
St. Louis City at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — St. Louis City vs Real Salt Lake
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Roman BürkiG
- 5Lukas MacNaughtonD
- 32Timo BaumgartlD
- 21Dante PolvaraD
- 6Conrad WallemM
- 24Daniel EdelmanM
- 8Christopher DurkinM
- 14Tomas TotlandM
- 77Jeong Sang-binF
- 10Eduard LöwenF
- 11Simon BecherF
- 23Alexandru MățanM
- 17Marcel HartelM
- 7Tomáš OstrákM
- 29Palmer AultM
- 39Benjamin LundtG
- 27Fallou FallD
- 28Miguel PerezM
- 59Mykhi JoynerM
- 20Rafael SantosD
- 1Rafael CabralG
- 2DeAndre YedlinD
- 26Philip QuintonD
- 29Sam JunquaD
- 23Zach BoothM
- 27Griffin DillonM
- 92Noel CaliskanM
- 8Juan SanabriaM
- 10Diego LunaF
- 70Lineker RodriguesF
- 22Sergi SolansF
- 6Stijn SpieringsM
- 12Saba LobzhanidzeM
- 17Victor OlatunjiF
- 11Dominik MarczukF
- 39Aiden HezarkhaniF
- 31Mason StajduharG
- 4Lukas EngelD
- 98Alexandros KatranisD
- 21Juan Jose AriasD
Form going into St. Louis City vs Real Salt Lake
St. Louis City
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Colorado Rapids26 July 2026
- W3-1away to Los Angeles Galaxy23 July 2026
- W3-2Sporting Kansas City17 July 2026
Real Salt Lake
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Portland Timbers26 July 2026
- L1-3away to Los Angeles FC23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | St. Louis City | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 59 | 48 | +11 | 54 |
| 9 | Real Salt Lake | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 53 | 52 | +1 | 45 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: St. Louis City vs Real Salt Lake
- 19 October 2025St. Louis City 2–2 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 6 July 2025Real Salt Lake 3–2 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 5 February 2025St. Louis City 1–1 Real Salt LakeFriendlies Clubs
- 31 March 2024Real Salt Lake 3–1 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 25 February 2024St. Louis City 1–1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: St. Louis City and Real Salt Lake
St. Louis City
GoalsAssists
- Rafael Navarro196
Real Salt Lake
GoalsAssists
- S. Solans154
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
St. Louis City and Real Salt Lake drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for St. Louis City at 58% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: S. Solans 60' for Real Salt Lake, M. Hartel 73' for St. Louis City. On expected goals it finished 1.71–1.24.