Sporting Kansas City vs Houston Dynamo Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Sporting Kansas City 0-2 Houston Dynamo.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Sporting Kansas City, 27% draw, 25% Houston Dynamo — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Sporting Kansas City at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sporting Kansas City vs Houston Dynamo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30Stefan ClevelandG
- 8Jacob DavisD
- 3Moises MosqueraD
- 5Or BlorianD
- 18Emir KarićD
- 4Lasse Berg JohnsenM
- 22Zorhan BassongM
- 7CapitaM
- 20Kwaku AgyabengM
- 11Calvin HarrisM
- 9Dejan JoveljićF
- 28Wyatt MeyerD
- 99Jayden ReidD
- 6Manu GarcíaM
- 93Shapi SuleymanovF
- 16Jacob BartlettD
- 1John PulskampG
- 15Jansen MillerD
- 2Ian JamesD
- 17Stephen AfrifaF
- 31Jonathan BondG
- 11Lawrence EnnaliD
- 5Lucas HalterD
- 34Agustin ReschD
- 36Felipe AndradeD
- 6ArturM
- 16Héctor HerreraM
- 8Jack McGlynnM
- 30Agustín BouzatM
- 20GuilhermeM
- 10Ezequiel PonceF
- 23Duncan McGuireF
- 21Franco NegriD
- 14Duane HolmesM
- 18Diadié SamassékouM
- 9Ondrej LingrM
- 26Blake GillinghamG
- 28Erik SviatchenkoD
- 22Matthew AranaM
- 24Ibrahim AliyuF
Form going into Sporting Kansas City vs Houston Dynamo
Sporting Kansas City
All competitions we cover
- L0-4away to Los Angeles FC26 July 2026
- W2-1Minnesota United FC23 July 2026
- L2-3away to St. Louis City17 July 2026
Houston Dynamo
All competitions we cover
- W3-0Austin26 July 2026
- D1-1DC United23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 34 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 40 | 81 | -41 | 26 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 43 | 43 | 0 | 51 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sporting Kansas City vs Houston Dynamo
- 19 October 2025Sporting Kansas City 0–0 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- 1 June 2025Houston Dynamo 1–3 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
- 12 May 2024Sporting Kansas City 1–2 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- 25 February 2024Houston Dynamo 1–1 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
- 27 November 2023Houston Dynamo 1–0 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Sporting Kansas City and Houston Dynamo
Sporting Kansas City
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 40 league goals as a side.
Houston Dynamo
GoalsAssists
- Guilherme168
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Houston Dynamo won 2–0 at Sporting Kansas City. The model had leaned towards a win for Sporting Kansas City at 48% and given a win for Houston Dynamo 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Guilherme 55' for Houston Dynamo, A. Bouzat 71' for Houston Dynamo. Sent off: L. Johnsen (Sporting Kansas City) 45'. On expected goals it finished 0.21–1.86.