Minnesota United FC vs San Diego Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Minnesota United FC 1-1 San Diego.
Before kick-off the model made it 61% Minnesota United FC, 20% draw, 19% San Diego — fair odds of 1.64, 5.00 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Minnesota United FC at 61%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Minnesota United FC vs San Diego
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12Drake CallenderG
- 3Kyle DuncanD
- 28Jefferson DíazD
- 15Michael BoxallD
- 23Morris DugganD
- 13Anthony MarkanichD
- 26Joaquín PereyraM
- 20Wil TrappM
- 30Owen GeneM
- 8Tomás ChancalayM
- 29Mamadou DiengF
- 2Devin PadelfordD
- 9Kelvin YeboahF
- 18Mauricio GonzálezF
- 21Bongokuhle HlongwaneF
- 1Alec SmirG
- 24Julian GresselM
- 67Carlos HarveyM
- 7Dominik FitzM
- 22Marcus CaldeiraF
- 1CJ Dos SantosG
- 3Dagur Dan ÞórhallssonD
- 97Christopher McVeyD
- 26Manu DuahD
- 5Kieran SargeantD
- 70Alejandro Alvarado JrM
- 6Jeppe TverskovM
- 8Onni ValakariM
- 10Anders DreyerF
- 7Marcus IngvartsenF
- 19David VazquezF
- 27Luca BombinoD
- 12Gabriel PiraniM
- 77Alex MightenF
- 20Aníbal GodoyM
- 18Duran FerreeG
- 33Oscar VerhoevenD
- 25Ian PilcherD
- 9Lewis MorganF
- 14Bryan ZambléF
Form going into Minnesota United FC vs San Diego
Minnesota United FC
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Vancouver Whitecaps26 July 2026
- L1-2away to Sporting Kansas City23 July 2026
San Diego
All competitions we cover
- W1-0FC Dallas26 July 2026
- L0-1away to Colorado Rapids23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Minnesota United FC | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 56 | 58 | -2 | 44 |
| 13 | San Diego | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 57 | 63 | -6 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Minnesota United FC vs San Diego
- 12 April 2026San Diego 1–2 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 25 November 2025San Diego 1–0 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 14 September 2025San Diego 1–3 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 15 June 2025Minnesota United FC 2–4 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Minnesota United FC and San Diego
Minnesota United FC
GoalsAssists
- K. Yeboah184
San Diego
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 57 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Minnesota United FC and San Diego drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Minnesota United FC at 61% and given a draw 20%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: T. Chancalay 3' for Minnesota United FC, A. Dreyer (penalty) 64' for San Diego. On expected goals it finished 0.92–1.47.