Chico vs Cucuta Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Chico 0-1 Cucuta.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Chico, 29% draw, 32% Cucuta — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Chico at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Chico vs Cucuta
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1D. AgudeloG
- 24C. MosqueraD
- 5J. AlomíaD
- 4J. MenaD
- 14C. BlancoD
- 17E. SarriaM
- 8S. SalazarM
- 6J. DíazM
- 16S. MeraM
- 22Alejandro MayaF
- 21J. PimentelF
- 10Y. CabreraM
- 29Luis CarabalíF
- 7F. CifuentesF
- 15S. NavarroD
- 19J. Pimentel Betancourt
- 2D. PolancoD
- 11D. RamírezM
- 20sebastian viverosM
- 12B. ZapataG
- 12F. AbadíaG
- 33S. TámaraD
- 2H. LópesD
- 4J. QuiñónesD
- 30B. MontañoD
- 5V. MejíaM
- 20D. GelvezM
- 10L. BerdugoM
- 77NenecoM
- 11G. TorresM
- 9J. PeraltaF
- 3D. CalcaterraD
- 21M. CarabalíF
- 8J. CeballosM
- 27M. DuarteD
- 1J. RamírezG
- 29L. RíosM
- 32J. AgudeloF
- 15Santiago VasquezM
- 26Y. AboníaD
Form going into Chico vs Cucuta
Chico
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Deportes Tolima3 October 2026
- W3-0Deportivo Pasto25 September 2026
Cucuta
All competitions we cover
- W4-0Deportivo Pereira4 October 2026
- W2-1Llaneros26 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Chico | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 29 | -14 | 20 |
| 10 | Cucuta | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 26 | -5 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Chico vs Cucuta
- 28 March 2026Cucuta 1–0 ChicoPrimera A
- 9 August 2022Cucuta 1–2 ChicoPrimera B
- 27 September 2020Chico 0–2 CucutaPrimera A
- 2 July 2017Cucuta 3–0 ChicoPrimera B
- 4 June 2017Cucuta 4–2 ChicoPrimera B
The result against the call
Cucuta won 1–0 at Chico. The model had leaned towards a win for Chico at 39% and given a win for Cucuta 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Dayan Pérez 70' for Cucuta. On expected goals it finished 0.55–0.89.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Chico a 14.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 4.8% after a win, 15.6% after a draw, 23.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 23.2%, 8.8 points higher than before the match.
For Cucuta the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 2.4% going in: under 1% after a win, 1.7% after a draw, 4.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at under 1%, 2.3 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.