Universitario vs FBC Melgar Primera División prediction & result
Final score: Universitario 2-2 FBC Melgar.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Universitario, 29% draw, 31% FBC Melgar — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Published · updated
All Primera División (Peru) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Universitario at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Universitario vs FBC Melgar
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1D. RomeroG
- 4A. SantamaríaD
- 3W. RiverosD
- 2C. FaraD
- 23J. MurrugarraM
- 24A. PoloM
- 10H. CalcaterraM
- 17J. ConchaM
- 33C. IngaM
- 18G. LapadulaF
- 20A. ValeraF
- 29A. CorzoD
- 19É. FloresM
- 8H. FértoliM
- 39P. QuispeM
- 15J. RequenaM
- 77B. ReynaF
- 11J. RiveraF
- 25M. VargasG
- 30Lisandro Joel AlzugarayF
- 21J. CabezudoG
- 33M. LazoD
- 23J. EscobarD
- 3L. GonzálezD
- 27N. CabanillasD
- 25K. MindaM
- 24W. TandazoM
- 7C. BordacaharM
- 10N. QuagliataM
- 8L. GuzmánM
- 9B. CuestaF
- 90J. AlcántarD
- 12C. CácedaG
- 16J. CáceresM
- 80J. D´ArrigoM
- 5A. DeneumostierD
- 36P. NunezM
- 11J. VidalesF
- 77F. ZanelattoF
- 45Matias ZegarraD
Peru Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Universitario | 33 | 17 | 10 | 6 | 59 | 39 | +20 | 61 |
| 3 | FBC Melgar | 33 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 56 | 38 | +18 | 57 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Universitario vs FBC Melgar
- 19 April 2026FBC Melgar 2–1 UniversitarioPrimera División
- 20 January 2026Universitario 3–2 FBC MelgarFriendlies Clubs
- 14 September 2025FBC Melgar 1–2 UniversitarioPrimera División
- 14 April 2025Universitario 4–1 FBC MelgarPrimera División
- 1 August 2024FBC Melgar 1–0 UniversitarioPrimera División
Leading scorers: Universitario and FBC Melgar
Universitario
GoalsAssists
- A. Valera182
- G. Lapadula94
FBC Melgar
GoalsAssists
- B. Cuesta156
- J. Vidales141
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Universitario a 87.0% chance to finish in the top four: 95.6% after a win, 86.2% after a draw, 77.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 86.2%, 0.8 points lower than before the match.
For FBC Melgar the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 64.8% going in: 83.2% after a win, 64.0% after a draw, 54.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 64.0%, 0.8 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.