Junior vs Deportivo Pereira Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Junior 1-1 Deportivo Pereira.
Before kick-off the model made it 64% Junior, 22% draw, 14% Deportivo Pereira — fair odds of 1.56, 4.55 and 7.14.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Colombian Primera A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Junior at 64%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Junior vs Deportivo Pereira
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30J. MartínezG
- 34Daniel SocarrasD
- 98J. PeñaD
- 5D. RiveraD
- 3E. HerreraD
- 88B. CastrillónM
- 22Jesús RivasM
- 80F. ÁngelM
- 18K. PérezM
- 10L. MurielF
- 9G. PaivaF
- 38Andrés ShmalbachM
- 28G. CelisM
- 77C. BarriosF
- 12J. AcostaG
- 8Y. CharáM
- 19F. FydriszewskiF
- 29T. GutiérrezF
- 16Carlos PérezD
- 14J. RíosM
- 1Yimy GómezG
- 20J. MonroyD
- 15S. AguilarD
- 3N. RengifoD
- 25F. DelgadoD
- 11J. LargachaM
- 21W. PachecoM
- 37L. MorenoM
- 24M. PalaciosM
- 10S. AcostaF
- 29M. DiazF
- 12J. BetancourthG
- 23T. BovoneD
- 26J. MontoyaM
- 27J. MoralesF
- 16Eber MorenoD
- 14Ederson MorenoM
- 7Á. PlataF
- 19M. AguirreM
- 2S. UrreaD
Form going into Junior vs Deportivo Pereira
Junior
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Internacional de Bogota10 October 2026
- L1-3away to Bucaramanga4 October 2026
- L1-3away to Atletico Nacional1 October 2026
- W2-0Independiente Medellin27 September 2026
- W4-1away to Fortaleza FC20 September 2026
Deportivo Pereira
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Deportivo Cali10 October 2026
- L0-4away to Cucuta4 October 2026
- L1-2Santa Fe29 September 2026
- D0-0Internacional de Bogota26 September 2026
What these results say
- Junior scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Junior conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Junior had three goals or more.
- Deportivo Pereira did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Deportivo Pereira failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Junior | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 26 | 27 | -1 | 22 |
| 17 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Junior vs Deportivo Pereira
- 3 February 2026Deportivo Pereira 2–3 JuniorPrimera A
- 18 October 2025Junior 3–2 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
- 27 April 2025Deportivo Pereira 1–0 JuniorPrimera A
- 20 October 2024Junior 3–1 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
- 23 May 2024Deportivo Pereira 0–0 JuniorPrimera A
Leading scorers: Junior and Deportivo Pereira
Junior
GoalsAssists
- L. Muriel163
Deportivo Pereira
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Junior and Deportivo Pereira drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Junior at 64% and given a draw 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Jermein Pena 5' for Junior, Anderson Plata 58' for Deportivo Pereira. On expected goals it finished 1.74–0.21.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Junior a 6.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 3.0% after a win, 9.6% after a draw, 19.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 9.6%, 3.3 points higher than before the match.
For Deportivo Pereira the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 67.5% going in: 37.0% after a win, 63.0% after a draw, 72.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 63.0%, 4.5 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Junior v Deportivo Pereira has moved
First published on 30 Sep at 55% / 27% / 18% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 64% / 22% / 14%: the biggest move is Junior's chance of winning, up 9 points.
- Junior win64%▲ +9
- Draw22%▼ −5
- Deportivo Pereira win14%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.