Bucaramanga vs Águilas Doradas Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Bucaramanga 1-1 Águilas Doradas.
Before kick-off the model made it 57% Bucaramanga, 25% draw, 18% Águilas Doradas — fair odds of 1.75, 4.00 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Bucaramanga at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bucaramanga vs Águilas Doradas
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25C. FiermarínG
- 19A. GutiérrezD
- 6N. CastrillónD
- 23C. RomañaD
- 24J. OrtizD
- 80O. AlbornozD
- 10F. SambuezaM
- 21F. CharrupíM
- 22F. CastroM
- 17E. BatallaM
- 27L. PonsF
- 29S. VelasquezM
- 28L. FloresM
- 30V. CantilloM
- 9B. CaicedoF
- 7K. LondoñoM
- 5A. MurriloF
- 12D. NovoaG
- 3M. ReaD
- 11F. SalazarF
- 1J. SotoG
- 26D. LozanoD
- 4A. MosqueraD
- 3J. OntanedaD
- 32J. MenaD
- 19F. LozanoM
- 6I. RojasM
- 24J. ÁvaloM
- 8A. RicaurteM
- 16M. RamírezM
- 9A. VásquezF
- 12Juan HurtadoG
- 30N. LaraD
- 10Junior Alexander Noguera MachucaM
- 29T. BlandonF
- 25J. RoaM
- 28S. RodríguezD
- 7Eduar ArízalasF
- 21R. MárquezF
- 2J. GarcíaD
Form going into Bucaramanga vs Águilas Doradas
Bucaramanga
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Junior4 October 2026
- W3-1away to Once Caldas26 September 2026
- W2-0Internacional de Bogota20 September 2026
Águilas Doradas
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Alianza Valledupar9 October 2026
- W2-0Jaguares3 October 2026
- L0-2away to Deportivo Cali28 September 2026
- L0-1away to America de Cali24 September 2026
What these results say
- Águilas Doradas failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Águilas Doradas conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Águilas Doradas had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 31 | 17 | +14 | 35 |
| 11 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 22 | 22 | 0 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bucaramanga vs Águilas Doradas
- 7 April 2026Águilas Doradas 2–1 BucaramangaPrimera A
- 25 August 2025Bucaramanga 4–0 Águilas DoradasPrimera A
- 8 March 2025Águilas Doradas 0–1 BucaramangaPrimera A
- 21 October 2024Águilas Doradas 1–3 BucaramangaPrimera A
- 27 March 2024Bucaramanga 1–0 Águilas DoradasPrimera A
Leading scorers: Bucaramanga and Águilas Doradas
Bucaramanga
GoalsAssists
- L. Pons155
- E. Batalla126
Águilas Doradas
GoalsAssists
- Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto110
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Bucaramanga and Águilas Doradas drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Bucaramanga at 57% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Edwin Castro 35' for Bucaramanga, Jorge Soto (penalty) 90+10' for Águilas Doradas. On expected goals it finished 0.60–1.44.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Bucaramanga a 78.6% chance to finish in the top four: 85.2% after a win, 71.5% after a draw, 63.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 71.5%, 7.1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Bucaramanga v Águilas Doradas has moved
First published on 30 Sep at 51% / 28% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 57% / 25% / 18%: the biggest move is Bucaramanga's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Bucaramanga win57%▲ +6
- Draw25%▼ −3
- Águilas Doradas win18%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.