Chippa United vs Mamelodi Sundowns Premier Soccer League prediction & result
Final score: Chippa United 1-1 Mamelodi Sundowns.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Chippa United, 30% draw, 38% Mamelodi Sundowns — fair odds of 3.13, 3.33 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Mamelodi Sundowns at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Chippa United vs Mamelodi Sundowns
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23S. NwabaliG
- 28B. MadingwaneD
- 35H. MajadiboduD
- 22A. MobaraD
- 31I. JonesD
- 21S. SeabiM
- 20G. MoseleM
- 15A. TshobeniM
- 10A. MatroseF
- 29N. MlotshwaF
- 7J. FiguareidoF
- 18E. SitholeG
- 25S. KammiesD
- 33O. Tshaya
- 5S. NdlovuD
- 44I. BanceM
- 6M. CarrimF
- 40M. KhanyiF
- 8K. MfecaneD
- 49L. SavilleM
- 30R. WilliamsG
- 27T. MorenaD
- 20G. KekanaD
- 3K. NdamaneD
- 23F. BasadienD
- 4T. MokoenaM
- 11M. AllendeM
- 38S. Ndlovu
- 43K. LethlakuM
- 17T. MatthewsM
- 12B. LeonF
- 31R. GossG
- 6A. ModibaD
- 42M. KhozaD
- 21S. MkhuliseM
- 33C. MailulaF
- 18T. ZwaneM
- 10N. SantosM
- 13I. RaynersF
- 29A. van WykF
Form going into Chippa United vs Mamelodi Sundowns
Chippa United
Premier Soccer League
- D0-0Milford FC5 September 2026
Mamelodi Sundowns
Premier Soccer League
- W3-0Siwelele9 September 2026
- W2-1away to Golden Arrows6 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Chippa United | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 11 |
| 1 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 9 | +18 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Chippa United and Mamelodi Sundowns
Chippa United
No player in Premier Soccer League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Mamelodi Sundowns
GoalsAssists
- I. Rayners40
- T. Matthews34
- B. León31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Chippa United and Mamelodi Sundowns drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Mamelodi Sundowns at 38% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: S. Kammies 78' for Chippa United, A. van Wyk 90' for Mamelodi Sundowns. On expected goals it finished 0.49–1.49.
How the call on Chippa United v Mamelodi Sundowns has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 31% / 27% / 42% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 32% / 30% / 38%: the biggest move is Mamelodi Sundowns's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Chippa United win32%▲ +1
- Draw30%▲ +3
- Mamelodi Sundowns win38%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.