12 September 2026, 15:15 UTC

Catanzaro vs Carrarese Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Nicola Ceravolo, Catanzaro
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Catanzaro 1-0 Carrarese.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Catanzaro, 29% draw, 30% Carrarese — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Catanzaro at 41% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Catanzaro97%Draw3%Carrarese0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

40'
Luka Topalovic
🔁Bruno Verrengiaout: Marco Imperiale
45'
Nicola Mosti
53'
56'
Gabriele parlanti
62'
Gabriele Cioffi
67'
🔁Luka Topalovicout: Tommaso Rubino
67'
🔁Moustapha Cisseout: G. Marconi
🔁Emanuele Pecorinoout: N'Dri Koffi
67'
🔁Nicola Mostiout: Franky Tchaouna
67'
🔁Marco Ruggeroout: Antonio Candela
67'
76'
🔁Jacopo Martiniout: Matthias Braunöder
76'
🔁Gabriele parlantiout: Nicolo Cudrig
Franky Tchaouna
78'
🔁Mehdi Dorvalout: Alejo Garnica
81'
⚽Pietro Lemmelloassist: Simone Pafundi
83'
87'
🔁Nicolas Schiaviout: Nicholas Bonfanti

Match stats — Catanzaro vs Carrarese

67%Possession33%
20Shots11
2On target1
2Corners5

Line-ups

Catanzaro 3-4-2-1
  • 22M. PigliacelliG
  • 24M. RuggeroD
  • 4Matias AntoniniD
  • 26B. VerrengiaD
  • 93M. DorvalM
  • 10J. PetriccioneM
  • 98N. MostiM
  • 30G. AlesiM
  • 20S. PafundiM
  • 9P. IemmelloM
  • 31E. PecorinoF
Substitutes
  • 3M. ImperialeD
  • 1C. MariettaG
  • 27A. CandelaD
  • 62R. FrosininiD
  • 14S. GiovaneM
  • 21F. CassaM
  • 29F. Di FrancescoF
  • 19N. KoffiF
  • 7N. BusoF
Coach: Giorgio Gorgone
Carrarese 3-5-2
  • 1S. PizzignaccoG
  • 13F. RuggeriD
  • 6F. OlianaD
  • 33F. RealeD
  • 28J. MartiniM
  • 77G. ParlantiM
  • 18Nicolás SchiaviM
  • 17L. TopalovićM
  • 73J. RouhiM
  • 9F. AbiusoF
  • 11M. CisséF
Substitutes
  • 10T. RubinoF
  • 21N. BonfantiF
  • 32M. FinottoF
  • 70N. CudrigF
  • 7N. BelloniM
  • 5T. MacchioniD
  • 20Gonçalo EstevesD
  • 12G. GarofaniG
  • 23M. BraunöderM
Coach: G. Cioffi

Form going into Catanzaro vs Carrarese

Catanzaro

  • L0-2away to Sudtirol5 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Pisa30 August 2026
  • L2-3away to Vicenza Virtus21 August 2026

Carrarese

  • L0-1Empoli5 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Ascoli29 August 2026
  • L1-2Mantova22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Catanzaro410347-33
19Carrarese401325-31

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Catanzaro vs Carrarese

  • 12 September 2026Catanzaro 1–0 CarrareseSerie B
  • 4 March 2026Carrarese 3–3 CatanzaroSerie B
  • 13 September 2025Catanzaro 1–1 CarrareseSerie B
  • 12 April 2025Carrarese 2–2 CatanzaroSerie B
  • 1 September 2024Catanzaro 3–1 CarrareseSerie B

Leading scorers: Catanzaro and Carrarese

Catanzaro

  • P. Iemmello2 goals

Carrarese

No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.