12 September 2026, 15:15 UTC

Catanzaro vs Carrarese Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Nicola Ceravolo, Catanzaro
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Catanzaro 1-0 Carrarese.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Catanzaro, 29% draw, 30% Carrarese — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Catanzaro at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Catanzaro97%Draw3%Carrarese0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

40'
Luka Topalovic
🔁Bruno Verrengiaout: Marco Imperiale
45'
Nicola Mosti
53'
56'
Gabriele parlanti
62'
Gabriele Cioffi
67'
🔁Luka Topalovicout: Tommaso Rubino
67'
🔁Moustapha Cisseout: G. Marconi
🔁Emanuele Pecorinoout: N'Dri Koffi
67'
🔁Nicola Mostiout: Franky Tchaouna
67'
🔁Marco Ruggeroout: Antonio Candela
67'
76'
🔁Jacopo Martiniout: Matthias Braunöder
76'
🔁Gabriele parlantiout: Nicolo Cudrig
Franky Tchaouna
78'
🔁Mehdi Dorvalout: Alejo Garnica
81'
⚽Pietro Lemmelloassist: Simone Pafundi
83'
87'
🔁Nicolas Schiaviout: Nicholas Bonfanti

Match stats — Catanzaro vs Carrarese

67%Possession33%
20Shots11
2On target1
2Corners5

Line-ups

Catanzaro 3-4-2-1
  • 22M. PigliacelliG
  • 24M. RuggeroD
  • 4Matias AntoniniD
  • 26B. VerrengiaD
  • 93M. DorvalM
  • 10J. PetriccioneM
  • 98N. MostiM
  • 30G. AlesiM
  • 20S. PafundiM
  • 9P. IemmelloM
  • 31E. PecorinoF
Substitutes
  • 3M. ImperialeD
  • 1C. MariettaG
  • 27A. CandelaD
  • 62R. FrosininiD
  • 14S. GiovaneM
  • 21F. CassaM
  • 29F. Di FrancescoF
  • 19N. KoffiF
  • 7N. BusoF
Coach: Giorgio Gorgone
Carrarese 3-5-2
  • 1S. PizzignaccoG
  • 13F. RuggeriD
  • 6F. OlianaD
  • 33F. RealeD
  • 28J. MartiniM
  • 77G. ParlantiM
  • 18Nicolás SchiaviM
  • 17L. TopalovićM
  • 73J. RouhiM
  • 9F. AbiusoF
  • 11M. CisséF
Substitutes
  • 10T. RubinoF
  • 21N. BonfantiF
  • 32M. FinottoF
  • 70N. CudrigF
  • 7N. BelloniM
  • 5T. MacchioniD
  • 20Gonçalo EstevesD
  • 12G. GarofaniG
  • 23M. BraunöderM
Coach: G. Cioffi

Form going into Catanzaro vs Carrarese

Catanzaro

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2away to Sudtirol5 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Pisa30 August 2026
  • L2-3away to Vicenza Virtus21 August 2026

Carrarese

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1Empoli5 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Ascoli29 August 2026
  • L1-2Mantova22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20Catanzaro111371123-126
17Carrarese11317914-510

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Catanzaro vs Carrarese

  • 4 March 2026Carrarese 3–3 CatanzaroSerie B
  • 13 September 2025Catanzaro 1–1 CarrareseSerie B
  • 12 April 2025Carrarese 2–2 CatanzaroSerie B
  • 1 September 2024Catanzaro 3–1 CarrareseSerie B

The result against the call

Catanzaro beat Carrarese 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Catanzaro at 41%. The goal: Pietro Lemmello 83' for Catanzaro.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.