12 September 2026, 17:30 UTC

Cesena vs Cremonese Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Dino Manuzzi, Cesena
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Cesena 2-2 Cremonese.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Cesena, 30% draw, 38% Cremonese — fair odds of 3.13, 3.33 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Cremonese at 38% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1764 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cesena3%Draw93%Cremonese4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Cristian Shpendiassist: Dimitri Bisoli
22'
•Cristian Shpendi
22'
Antonio Fiori
39'
Mihajlo Ilic
45+3'
•X. Druiventak
57'
58'
🔁Jari Vandeputteout: Salvatore Elia
59'
🔁Tommaso Bertiout: Morten Thorsby
59'
🔁Alessandro Vogliaccoout: Michele Collocolo
⚽Cristian Shpendi (pen)
59'
🔁X. Druiventakout: Gianluca Frabotta
61'
66'
🔁Yuri Rocchettiout: Federico Baschirotto
70'
🔁Simone Pontissoout: Manuel De Luca
🔁Massimiliano Mangravitiout: Marco Dalla Vecchia
70'
🔁Antonio Fioriout: Luca D'Andrea
70'
75'
⚽Michele Collocoloassist: Federico Bonazzoli
Jacopo Gelli
77'
80'
⚽Federico Bonazzoliassist: Sebastiano Luperto
Gianluca Frabotta
80'
🔁Matteo Guidiout: Alessandro Debenedetti
87'
90'
Federico Bonazzoli

Match stats — Cesena vs Cremonese

40%Possession60%
8Shots19
2On target6
5Corners4

Line-ups

Cesena 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. SianoG
  • 15A. CiofiD
  • 6M. IlićD
  • 4J. GelliD
  • 24M. MangravitiD
  • 10R. PaganoM
  • 18M. GuidiM
  • 14X. DruiventakM
  • 25D. BisoliM
  • 80A. FioriM
  • 9C. ShpendiF
Substitutes
  • 8M. FrancesconiM
  • 23V. MagniD
  • 2M. NattaD
  • 26M. PiacentiniD
  • 5L. SchironeM
  • 32E. BohinenM
  • 16L. D'AndreaF
  • 27M. Dalla VecchiaM
  • 3A. DavidD
Coach: Alessandro Diamanti
Cremonese 4-2-3-1
  • 22F. AgazziG
  • 38A. VogliaccoD
  • 15M. BianchettiD
  • 5S. LupertoD
  • 21Y. RocchettiD
  • 16F. GerliM
  • 20S. PontissoM
  • 10Adin LičinaM
  • 14T. BertiM
  • 27J. VandeputteM
  • 90F. BonazzoliF
Substitutes
  • 12M. FestaG
  • 71S. EliaM
  • 9M. De LucaF
  • 18M. CollocoloM
  • 6F. BaschirottoD
  • 59Riccardo LiberaliG
  • 17A. LickūnasF
  • 8Simone Lottici TessadriM
  • 13Fellipe JackD
Coach: F. Pecchia

Form going into Cesena vs Cremonese

Cesena

  • D1-1Mantova6 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Virtus Entella29 August 2026
  • D1-1Sampdoria23 August 2026

Cremonese

  • W3-1Padova6 September 2026
  • L0-3Modena28 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Empoli22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Cesena413065+16
15Cremonese411257-24

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cesena vs Cremonese

  • 12 September 2026Cesena 2–2 CremoneseSerie B
  • 22 February 2025Cremonese 1–2 CesenaSerie B
  • 26 December 2024Cesena 0–1 CremoneseSerie B
  • 18 May 2018Cesena 1–0 CremoneseSerie B
  • 28 December 2017Cremonese 1–0 CesenaSerie B

Leading scorers: Cesena and Cremonese

Cesena

  • C. Shpendi5 goals

Cremonese

  • F. Bonazzoli3 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.