VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2. Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: VfL Bochum 1-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% VfL Bochum, 29% draw, 30% SpVgg Greuther Fürth — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All 2. Bundesliga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
VfL Bochum at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1T. HornG
- 2S. KlaiberD
- 15M. SteinwenderD
- 5K. MetsD
- 32M. WittekD
- 34T. MeyerM
- 24M. PannewigM
- 7C. RasmussenM
- 23K. MiyoshiM
- 17G. HoltmannM
- 33P. HofmannF
- 38H. RollekeG
- 4Y. KarademirD
- 31L. SawasD
- 28C. PatinoM
- 10B. TazM
- 39L. IsbruchM
- 37A. CrimaldiF
- 19D. HanslikF
- 14J. SteuckersF
- 1F. HellsternG
- 2L. ReichD
- 22J. HeuerD
- 29K. KeresztesD
- 27L. ItterD
- 37F. AdemiM
- 13P. WillM
- 6S. BanseM
- 10O. PohlmannM
- 30F. KlausF
- 9JordanF
- 43S. PrufrockG
- 34H. BlankD
- 23J. DehmD
- 4E. BenkaraD
- 28D. ArifiM
- 11A. KellerM
- 45O. BalliuM
- 7D. SrbenyF
- 42O. SillahF
Form going into VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
VfL Bochum
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Dynamo Dresden5 September 2026
- L0-1VfL Osnabrück28 August 2026
- W1-0away to Eintracht Braunschweig14 August 2026
- L0-1Hertha BSC7 August 2026
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
All competitions we cover
- L0-11. FC Heidenheim6 September 2026
- W4-3away to Energie Cottbus29 August 2026
- L2-41. FC Nürnberg15 August 2026
- D1-1away to FC St. Pauli9 August 2026
What these results say
- VfL Bochum conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for VfL Bochum had two goals or fewer.
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | VfL Bochum | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 14 |
| 10 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
- 23 August 2026SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1–2 VfL BochumDFB Pokal
- 26 April 2026VfL Bochum 2–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga
- 29 November 2025SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0–3 VfL Bochum2. Bundesliga
- 5 March 2022VfL Bochum 2–1 SpVgg Greuther FürthBundesliga
- 16 October 2021SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0–1 VfL BochumBundesliga
- 6 March 2021SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1–2 VfL Bochum2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: VfL Bochum and SpVgg Greuther Fürth
VfL Bochum
GoalsAssists
- P. Hofmann50
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
GoalsAssists
- F. Klaus71
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
VfL Bochum and SpVgg Greuther Fürth drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for VfL Bochum at 41% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: P. Hofmann 16' for VfL Bochum, O. Sillah 71' for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Sent off: Mats Pannewig (VfL Bochum) 82'. On expected goals it finished 1.53–1.64.