12 September 2026, 11:00 UTC

Fakel vs Baltika Premier League prediction & result

Fakel Stadium, Voronezh
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Fakel 2-2 Baltika.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Fakel, 32% draw, 36% Baltika — fair odds of 3.13, 3.13 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Baltika at 36% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1764 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Fakel97%Draw3%Baltika0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

10'
Andrey Mendel
⚽Ravil Netfullinassist: Aleksey Sutormin
13'
45'
🔁Maksim Petrovout: Ilya Petrov
🔁Aleksey Sutorminout: Butta Magomedov
45'
45'
🔁Vladislav Pospelovout: Egor Golenkov
45'
🔁Mingiyan Beveevout: Maksim Shnaptsev
47'
Eduardo Anderson
⚽Butta Magomedov
51'
65'
🔁Andrey Mendelout: Ivan Belikov
65'
🔁Nathan Gassamaout: Mikhail Ryadno
🔁Aleksandr Koksharovout: Axel Gnapi
68'
🔁Maksim Turishchevout: Nikolay Giorgobiani
68'
74'
⚽Egor Golenkovassist: Brayan Gil
🔁Anton Kovalevout: Darko Todorovic
76'
82'
Loris Mouyokolo
90+3'
•Egor Golenkov
90+5'
⚽Brayan Gil (pen)
Axel Gnapi
90+6'

Match stats — Fakel vs Baltika

39%Possession61%
9Shots18
3On target4
3Corners7

Line-ups

Fakel 3-4-3
  • 1D. FrolkinG
  • 20I. YurganovD
  • 40ClaytonD
  • 53M. BardachevD
  • 5A. GabaraevM
  • 52R. NetfullinM
  • 23V. YakimovM
  • 17A. KovalevM
  • 7M. TurishchevF
  • 90A. KoksharovF
  • 11A. SutorminF
Substitutes
  • 8A. BagamaevM
  • 25A. BelyaevF
  • 35V. DorovskikhG
  • 22H. El MahasniD
  • 99N. GiorgobianiM
  • 9A. Gnapi DableF
  • 97B. MagomedovM
  • 19B. PusiF
  • 55D. TodorovićD
Coach: Oleg Vasilenko
Baltika 5-4-1
  • 1E. LatyshonokG
  • 22M. BeveevD
  • 2S. VaratynovD
  • 24L. MouyokoloD
  • 21E. AndersonD
  • 4N. GassamaD
  • 42V. PospelovM
  • 8A. MendelM
  • 5A. MouridM
  • 73M. PetrovM
  • 91B. GilF
Substitutes
  • 19M. ShnaptsevD
  • 7K. ShiltsovM
  • 68M. RyadnoD
  • 10I. PetrovM
  • 9C. OfforF
  • 44E. LyubakovG
  • 81I. KukushkinG
  • 3I. KirschD
  • 69E. GolenkovF
Coach: A. Talalaev

Form going into Fakel vs Baltika

Fakel

  • L1-3away to FC Rostov5 September 2026
  • L0-1Zenit29 August 2026
  • D0-0FC Orenburg22 August 2026

Baltika

  • L0-1Lokomotiv6 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Rodina Moskva30 August 2026
  • D1-1Rubin24 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Fakel9036613-73
8Baltika93241412+211

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Fakel vs Baltika

  • 12 September 2026Fakel 2–2 BaltikaPremier League
  • 12 February 2026Baltika 1–0 FakelFriendlies Clubs
  • 31 January 2024Baltika 1–2 FakelFriendlies Clubs
  • 2 December 2023Fakel Voronezh 0–0 BaltikaPremier League
  • 6 August 2023Baltika 2–1 Fakel VoronezhPremier League
  • 21 May 2022Baltika 0–1 Fakel VoronezhFirst League

Leading scorers: Fakel and Baltika

Fakel

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

Baltika

  • B. Gil3 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.