12 September 2026, 11:00 UTC

Fakel vs Baltika Premier League prediction & result

Fakel Stadium, Voronezh
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Fakel 2-2 Baltika.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Fakel, 32% draw, 36% Baltika — fair odds of 3.13, 3.13 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Baltika at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Fakel97%Draw3%Baltika0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

10'
Andrey Mendel
⚽Ravil Netfullinassist: Aleksey Sutormin
13'
45'
🔁Maksim Petrovout: Ilya Petrov
🔁Aleksey Sutorminout: Butta Magomedov
45'
45'
🔁Vladislav Pospelovout: Egor Golenkov
45'
🔁Mingiyan Beveevout: Maksim Shnaptsev
47'
Eduardo Anderson
⚽Butta Magomedov
51'
65'
🔁Andrey Mendelout: Ivan Belikov
65'
🔁Nathan Gassamaout: Mikhail Ryadno
🔁Aleksandr Koksharovout: Axel Gnapi
68'
🔁Maksim Turishchevout: Nikolay Giorgobiani
68'
74'
⚽Egor Golenkovassist: Brayan Gil
🔁Anton Kovalevout: Darko Todorovic
76'
82'
Loris Mouyokolo
90+3'
•Egor Golenkov
90+5'
⚽Brayan Gil (pen)
Axel Gnapi
90+6'

Match stats — Fakel vs Baltika

39%Possession61%
9Shots18
3On target4
3Corners7

Line-ups

Fakel 3-4-3
  • 1D. FrolkinG
  • 20I. YurganovD
  • 40ClaytonD
  • 53M. BardachevD
  • 5A. GabaraevM
  • 52R. NetfullinM
  • 23V. YakimovM
  • 17A. KovalevM
  • 7M. TurishchevF
  • 90A. KoksharovF
  • 11A. SutorminF
Substitutes
  • 8A. BagamaevM
  • 25A. BelyaevF
  • 35V. DorovskikhG
  • 22H. El MahasniD
  • 99N. GiorgobianiM
  • 9A. Gnapi DableF
  • 97B. MagomedovM
  • 19B. PusiF
  • 55D. TodorovićD
Coach: Oleg Vasilenko
Baltika 5-4-1
  • 1E. LatyshonokG
  • 22M. BeveevD
  • 2S. VaratynovD
  • 24L. MouyokoloD
  • 21E. AndersonD
  • 4N. GassamaD
  • 42V. PospelovM
  • 8A. MendelM
  • 5A. MouridM
  • 73M. PetrovM
  • 91B. GilF
Substitutes
  • 19M. ShnaptsevD
  • 7K. ShiltsovM
  • 68M. RyadnoD
  • 10I. PetrovM
  • 9C. OfforF
  • 44E. LyubakovG
  • 81I. KukushkinG
  • 3I. KirschD
  • 69E. GolenkovF
Coach: A. Talalaev

Form going into Fakel vs Baltika

Fakel

All competitions we cover

  • L1-3away to FC Rostov5 September 2026
  • L0-1Zenit29 August 2026
  • D0-0FC Orenburg22 August 2026
  • L0-1away to CSKA Moscow15 August 2026
  • D0-0Akhmat10 August 2026

Baltika

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1Lokomotiv6 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Rodina Moskva30 August 2026
  • D1-1Rubin24 August 2026
  • L1-2Spartak Moscow16 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Krylia Sovetov8 August 2026

What these results say

  • Fakel did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Fakel failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Fakel had two goals or fewer.
  • Baltika scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Russia Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Fakel141310923-146
9Baltika144551715+217

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Fakel vs Baltika

  • 12 February 2026Baltika 1–0 FakelFriendlies Clubs
  • 31 January 2024Baltika 1–2 FakelFriendlies Clubs
  • 2 December 2023Fakel Voronezh 0–0 BaltikaPremier League
  • 6 August 2023Baltika 2–1 Fakel VoronezhPremier League
  • 21 May 2022Baltika 0–1 Fakel VoronezhFirst League

Leading scorers: Fakel and Baltika

Fakel

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

Baltika

GoalsAssists

  • B. Gil51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Fakel and Baltika drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Baltika at 36% and given a draw 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Ravil Netfullin 13' for Fakel, Butta Magomedov 51' for Fakel, Egor Golenkov 74' for Baltika, Brayan Gil (penalty) 90+5' for Baltika.

How the call on Fakel v Baltika has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 35% / 32% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 32% / 32% / 36%: the biggest move is Fakel's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Fakel win32%▼ −3
  2. Draw32%=
  3. Baltika win36%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.