10 October 2026, 10:00 UTC

Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv Premier League prediction & result

Chornomorets Stadium, Odessa
Referee: Andrey Kovalenko
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Chornomorets 1-2 FC Kharkiv.

Before kick-off the model made it 22% Chornomorets, 30% draw, 48% FC Kharkiv — fair odds of 4.55, 3.33 and 2.08.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Kharkiv at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Chornomorets0%Draw2%FC Kharkiv98%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Jerry Yoka
17'
24'
⚽Carlos Paraco
48'
Ramik Gadzhiev
57'
⚽Baton Zabergjaassist: Ivan Kalyuzhny
⚽Kiril·Popovassist: M. Jobe
60'
63'
🔁Baton Zabergjaout: Oleksandr Yatsyk
🔁Danyil Alefirenkoout: Vladyslav Gerych
76'
🔁Vladyslav Klymenkoout: Oleksiy Gusev
76'
84'
🔁Carlos Paracoout: Sebastian Alejandro Castillo Perez
84'
🔁Peter Itodoout: Ermir Rashica
🔁M. Jobeout: Andriy Khoma
85'
90'
Oleksandr Yatsyk
90+2'
🔁Ramik Gadzhievout: Denys Antyukh

Match stats — Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv

35%Possession65%
5Shots18
3On target7
1Corners8

Line-ups

Chornomorets 4-2-3-1
  • 12C. AniagbosoG
  • 21V. KlymenkoD
  • 24M. JarjuD
  • 74M. FarinaD
  • 27O. PushkarevD
  • 30M. JobeM
  • 18G. RobakidzeM
  • 11K. PopovM
  • 13V. FaraseenkoM
  • 7D. AlefirenkoM
  • 70J. YokaF
Substitutes
  • 35M. KovalG
  • 16N. BaydaG
  • 52S. YarmolaD
  • 23O. GusevD
  • 9A. KhomaF
  • 20Nikita StepovyiM
  • 4M. KratovD
  • 77Vladyslav HerychM
  • 60M. MelnychenkoM
Coach: R. Grigorchuk
FC Kharkiv 4-2-3-1
  • 1H. ErmakovG
  • 27I. KrupskyiD
  • 13V. SalyukD
  • 31A. ShabanovD
  • 29A. SmolyakovD
  • 5I. KalyuzhnyiM
  • 18Y. PavlyukM
  • 14R. GadzhievM
  • 10C. ParacoM
  • 7B. ZabërgjaM
  • 98P. ItodoF
Substitutes
  • 11S. CastilloM
  • 16N. ÁrevaloM
  • 19E. RashicaM
  • 25I. KogutM
  • 8O. YatsykM
  • 9D. AntyukhM
  • 24O. MartynyukD
  • 37V. DubkoD
  • 30D. VarakutaG
Coach: M. Bartulović

Form going into Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv

Chornomorets

No earlier matches on record this season.

FC Kharkiv

Premier League

  • W2-0Bukovyna19 September 2026
  • W5-0Obolon'-Brovar5 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ukraine Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Chornomorets11236813-59
4FC Kharkiv9702187+1121

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv

  • 12 May 2024Chornomorets 3–0 FC KharkivPremier League
  • 5 November 2023FC Kharkiv 2–1 ChornomoretsPremier League
  • 11 March 2023Chornomorets 1–1 FC KharkivPremier League
  • 27 August 2022FC Kharkiv 0–0 ChornomoretsPremier League
  • 12 December 2021Chornomorets 2–1 FC KharkivPremier League
  • 6 August 2021FC Kharkiv 3–2 ChornomoretsPremier League

Leading scorers: Chornomorets and FC Kharkiv

Chornomorets

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.

FC Kharkiv

GoalsAssists

  • B. Zabërgja62
  • P. Itodo41
  • R. Gadzhiev31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Kharkiv won 2–1 at Chornomorets. The model had made a win for FC Kharkiv its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Carlos Paraco 24' for FC Kharkiv, Baton Zabergja 57' for FC Kharkiv, Kiril·Popov 60' for Chornomorets. Sent off: Jerry Yoka (Chornomorets) 17'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Chornomorets a 32.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 24.3% after a win, 31.2% after a draw, 36.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 36.1%, 3.5 points higher than before the match.

For FC Kharkiv the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 72.0% going in: 76.0% after a win, 70.6% after a draw, 65.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 76.0%, 4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Chornomorets v FC Kharkiv has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 25% / 31% / 44% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 22% / 30% / 48%: the biggest move is FC Kharkiv's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Chornomorets win22%▼ −3
  2. Draw30%▼ −1
  3. FC Kharkiv win48%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.