10 October 2026, 10:00 UTC

Tondela vs Torreense Segunda Liga prediction & result

Tondela
Referee: Vitor Jorge Fernandes Ferreira
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Tondela 1-0 Torreense.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Tondela, 28% draw, 29% Torreense — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Tondela at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Tondela8%Draw91%Torreense1%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 3 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Clebson Cicero
22'
Carraça
31'
35'
João Marques
45+2'
Malik Abubakari
56'
Lucas Paes
56'
Adriel
José María Pérez García
60'
62'
🔁L. Quinteroout: Lucas Paes
🔁Carraçaout: Bebeto
62'
72'
🔁Malik Abubakariout: musa drammeh
72'
🔁Dany Jeanout: Nuha Jatta
🔁Clebson Ciceroout: Tiago Dias
73'
🔁Hugo Félixout: Sphephelo Sithole
74'
74'
Mohamed Ali Diadie
78'
🔁Alejandro Alfaroout: Andre Simões
78'
🔁João Marquesout: Ianique Tavares Stopira
🔁Arjen Van Der Heideout: Richarllyson Carvalho Alves
87'
🔁Mateus Ferreiraout: Joao Marcos Lima Candido
87'
Bebeto
90+4'
Richarllyson Carvalho Alves
90+6'
⚽Rodrigo Cascavel
90+10'

Match stats — Tondela vs Torreense

66%Possession34%
23Shots5
5On target1
8Corners2

Line-ups

Tondela 4-2-3-1
  • 28CarlosG
  • 15CarraçaD
  • 4Christian MarquesD
  • 6FarruD
  • 12Zé RicardoD
  • 97CíceroM
  • 37SararáM
  • 26A. van der HeideF
  • 20Hugo FélixM
  • 7CascavelM
  • 19TómanéF
Substitutes
  • 95R. da SilvaG
  • 1Lucas CañizaresG
  • 2BebetoM
  • 3ian kamgaD
  • 5João AfonsoD
  • 11Alves Richarllyson CarvalhoF
  • 13S. SitholeM
  • 14Xabi HuarteM
  • 8Hélder TavaresM
Coach: Ricardo Costa
Torreense 4-2-3-1
  • 31AdrielG
  • 22David BrunoD
  • 4Volnei FeltesD
  • 5M. DiadieM
  • 23Javi VázquezD
  • 6A. OudrhiriM
  • 8Alejandro AlfaroM
  • 29L. QuinteroF
  • 33João MarquesF
  • 7D. JeanM
  • 27M. AbubakariF
Substitutes
  • 2StopiraD
  • 11Manu PozoF
  • 19K. ZoabiF
  • 17M. DrammehF
  • 26André SimõesM
  • 21Nuha JattaM
  • 28Hugo PérezD
  • 45J. MutomboD
  • 3Juan María AlcedoD
Coach: Luís Tralhão

Form going into Tondela vs Torreense

Tondela

Segunda Liga

  • W2-0away to Portimonense12 September 2026

Torreense

Segunda Liga

  • D0-0Leixoes11 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Tondela105141311+216
13Torreense102441013-310

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Tondela vs Torreense

  • 1 March 2025Tondela 2–2 TorreenseSegunda Liga
  • 4 October 2024Torreense 0–2 TondelaSegunda Liga
  • 15 March 2024Torreense 0–1 TondelaSegunda Liga
  • 26 November 2023Torreense 1–1 TondelaTaça de Portugal
  • 5 November 2023Tondela 1–2 TorreenseSegunda Liga
  • 4 March 2023Tondela 1–1 TorreenseSegunda Liga

Leading scorers: Tondela and Torreense

Tondela

GoalsAssists

  • Cascavel10

Torreense

No player in Segunda Liga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Tondela beat Torreense 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Tondela at 43%. The goal: Rodrigo Cascavel 90+10' for Tondela. Sent off: Adriel (Torreense) 56', Mohamed Ali Diadie (Torreense) 74', Richarllyson Carvalho Alves (Tondela) 90+6'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Tondela a 41.4% chance to finish in the top four: 47.1% after a win, 40.0% after a draw, 33.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 47.1%, 5.7 points higher than before the match.

For Torreense the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 35.6% going in: 44.5% after a win, 34.7% after a draw, 29.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 29.7%, 5.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Segunda Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Tondela v Torreense has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 41% / 29% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 43% / 28% / 29%: the biggest move is Tondela's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Tondela win43%▲ +2
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Torreense win29%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.