DC United vs Charlotte Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: DC United 1-2 Charlotte.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% DC United, 29% draw, 33% Charlotte — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
DC United at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — DC United vs Charlotte
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1S. JohnsonG
- 2K. NonoD
- 3L. BartlettD
- 15K. RowlesD
- 6K. KurokawaD
- 23B. ServaniaM
- 21A. DozzellM
- 7PeglowM
- 25J. HopkinsF
- 9T. BariboF
- 11L. MunteanuF
- 26A. BonoG
- 5S. HeftiD
- 13S. NealisD
- 12C. AntleyD
- 27N. MarkovicD
- 77H. KijimaM
- 4M. PeltolaD
- 8J. StroudM
- 22N. OrdazF
- 1K. KahlinaG
- 14N. ByrneD
- 22H. KesslerD
- 3T. ReamD
- 23D. SchneggD
- 8A. WestwoodM
- 13B. BronicoM
- 11L. AbadaM
- 16P. BielM
- 10A. Saint-MaximinM
- 9I. ToklomatiF
- 21T. MillerG
- 15H. ToffoloD
- 44M. AgyemangD
- 35W. ClearyD
- 17L. de la TorreM
- 28D. DianiM
- 37R. AlokoF
- 7A. GoodwinF
- 25T. SmallsF
Form going into DC United vs Charlotte
DC United
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Atlanta United FC12 September 2026
- W2-1Columbus Crew9 September 2026
- D0-0Los Angeles FC29 August 2026
- L1-3away to Charlotte22 August 2026
- L0-3New England Revolution19 August 2026
Charlotte
All competitions we cover
- D3-3away to FC Cincinnati12 September 2026
- W2-1away to CF Montreal9 September 2026
- D0-0Houston Dynamo5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Atlanta United FC29 August 2026
- W3-1DC United22 August 2026
What these results say
- DC United failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Charlotte went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Charlotte scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | DC United | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 39 | 61 | -22 | 33 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 66 | 51 | +15 | 54 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: DC United vs Charlotte
- 22 August 2026Charlotte 3–1 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
- 4 October 2025DC United 0–1 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- 16 July 2025Charlotte 2–1 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
- 21 May 2025DC United 2–2 CharlotteUS Open Cup
- 20 October 2024DC United 0–3 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- 15 June 2024Charlotte 1–0 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: DC United and Charlotte
DC United
GoalsAssists
- T. Baribo161
Charlotte
GoalsAssists
- I. Toklomati Giorno155
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Charlotte won 2–1 at DC United. The model had leaned towards a win for DC United at 38% and given a win for Charlotte 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: A. Westwood 22' for Charlotte, L. Bartlett 47' for DC United, A. Saint-Maximin 71' for Charlotte. On expected goals it finished 2.85–0.90.
How the call on DC United v Charlotte has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 43% / 27% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 38% / 29% / 33%: the biggest move is DC United's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- DC United win38%▼ −5
- Draw29%▲ +2
- Charlotte win33%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.