Derby
vs
Watford
Championship prediction
Our model says: Derby 1–0 Watford
The model makes it 43% Derby, 29% draw, 28% Watford — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Derby 1.37, Watford 0.99.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Derby's rating is built from 61 Championship matches and Watford's from 61, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,294 matches.
Key facts
- Derby are 23rd on 10 points from 15 games; Watford are 20th on 15 points from 15 games — Championship.
- Derby have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Bolton.
- Watford have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Middlesbrough.
- Last 6 meetings: Watford 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 21 February 2026, ended Watford 2–0 Derby.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Derby vs Watford
Has the model earned this number?
Derby at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Derby vs Watford
Derby
Championship
- W3-1Bolton6 November 2026
- L0-4Norwich3 November 2026
- L1-4away to Millwall31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Sheffield Utd24 October 2026
- L0-1Stoke City17 October 2026
Watford
Championship
- D0-0Middlesbrough7 November 2026
- W1-0Lincoln3 November 2026
- L2-3away to Norwich31 October 2026
- L0-1away to Wolves24 October 2026
- W2-0Charlton17 October 2026
What these results say
- Derby conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Derby failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Watford had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Derby | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 30 | -16 | 10 |
| 20 | Watford | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Derby
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 47% today
Watford
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 35% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Derby vs Watford
- 21 February 2026Watford 2–0 DerbyChampionship
- 22 November 2025Derby 2–3 WatfordChampionship
- 18 January 2025Derby 0–2 WatfordChampionship
- 24 August 2024Watford 2–1 DerbyChampionship
- 19 February 2021Watford 2–1 DerbyChampionship
- 16 October 2020Derby 0–1 WatfordChampionship
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Watford (20th, with Derby 23rd), while our numbers lean to Derby. Derby rate 0.63 in attack and 1.56 in defence, Watford 0.53 and 1.43 (lower is better in defence), so Derby have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 5-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Derby the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Derby against 0.99 for Watford. Derby's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.43 for Watford.
How the model reaches 43% for Derby to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Derby to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Derby's ratings add 1 point and Watford's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Both sides at this match's level41%−1
- Derby's ratings42%+1
- Watford's ratings43%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Derby at home · Watford away
League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
DerbyWatford
Derby are 23rd after 15 Championship matches (between 13th and 23rd so far); Watford are 20th after 15 (between 6th and 22nd). Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Derby 15, Watford 15.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Derby
- at Middlesbrough5 Dec · Championshipwin 16%
- vs Bristol City9 Dec · Championshipwin 40%
- at Blackburn12 Dec · Championshipwin 25%
Watford
- vs Millwall5 Dec · Championshipwin 31%
- at Birmingham8 Dec · Championshipwin 15%
- at QPR12 Dec · Championshipwin 21%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.