Millwall
vs
Burnley
Championship prediction
Our model says: Millwall 2–1 Burnley
The model makes it 52% Millwall, 24% draw, 24% Burnley — fair odds of 1.92, 4.17 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Millwall 2.06, Burnley 1.27.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Millwall's rating is built from 63 Championship matches and Burnley's from 15, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,294 matches.
Key facts
- Millwall are 16th on 18 points from 15 games; Burnley are 22nd on 10 points from 15 games — Championship.
- Millwall have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to West Brom.
- Burnley have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 4-5 defeat away to Cardiff.
- Last 6 meetings: Burnley 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 10 January 2026, ended Burnley 5–1 Millwall.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Millwall vs Burnley
Has the model earned this number?
Millwall at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Millwall vs Burnley
Millwall
Championship
- L0-3away to West Brom7 November 2026
- L0-3away to Birmingham3 November 2026
- W4-1Derby31 October 2026
- L1-2away to Portsmouth24 October 2026
- D2-2Lincoln17 October 2026
Burnley
Championship
- L4-5away to Cardiff7 November 2026
- D1-1away to QPR3 November 2026
- D0-0Portsmouth31 October 2026
- L1-4away to Lincoln24 October 2026
- L1-2Wolves16 October 2026
What these results say
- Millwall conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Millwall had three goals or more.
- Millwall failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Burnley did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Burnley scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Burnley conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Millwall | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 18 |
| 22 | Burnley | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Burnley
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 32% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Millwall vs Burnley
- 10 January 2026Burnley 5–1 MillwallFA Cup
- 3 May 2025Burnley 3–1 MillwallChampionship
- 3 November 2024Millwall 1–0 BurnleyChampionship
- 21 February 2023Millwall 1–1 BurnleyChampionship
- 30 August 2022Burnley 2–0 MillwallChampionship
- 23 September 2020Millwall 0–2 BurnleyLeague Cup
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Millwall a 0.7% chance of the title and Burnley 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Millwall the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Millwall against 1.27 for Burnley. Millwall's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.78 for Burnley.
How the model reaches 52% for Millwall to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Millwall to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Millwall's ratings add 3 points and Burnley's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Both sides at this match's level44%+2
- Millwall's ratings47%+3
- Burnley's ratings52%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Millwall at home · Burnley away
League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
MillwallBurnley
Millwall are 16th after 15 Championship matches (between 1st and 16th so far); Burnley are 22nd after 15 (between 10th and 24th). Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Millwall 15, Burnley 15.
Millwall score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Burnley have let in 5 there.
Burnley score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Millwall have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Millwall
- at Watford5 Dec · Championshipwin 39%
- vs Sheffield Utd8 Dec · Championshipwin 42%
- at Wolves12 Dec · Championshipwin 24%
Burnley
- vs Preston6 Dec · Championshipwin 51%
- at Southampton9 Dec · Championshipwin 15%
- at Sheffield Utd12 Dec · Championshipwin 24%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.