30 August 2026, 15:00 UTC

Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers Premier Division prediction & result

The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Derry
Full time3 – 3

Final score: Derry City 3-3 Shamrock Rovers.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Derry City, 28% draw, 28% Shamrock Rovers — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Derry City at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Derry City5%Draw92%Shamrock Rovers3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽E. Chapmanassist: M. Duffy
2'
Patrick McClean
6'
⚽M. Duffyassist: D. Burns
16'
18'
Michael Noonan
Jamie Stott
24'
28'
⚽M. Noonanassist: G. Burke
⚽E. Chapmanassist: M. Duffy
33'
44'
Adam Matthews
50'
Cory O'Sullivan
🔁E. Chapmanout: J. Olayinka
64'
69'
🔁A. Matthewsout: J. Mulraney
69'
🔁J. O'Sullivanout: W. Fitzgerald
72'
⚽G. Burkeassist: W. Fitzgerald
78'
🔁J. Byrneout: D. Watts
🔁N. Twiskout: C. Dummigan
79'
🔁D. Burnsout: B. Cotter
79'
79'
🔁A. Brennanout: J. McGovern
80'
⚽D. Wattsassist: W. Fitzgerald
86'
🔁out: D. Cleary
88'
William Fitzgerald
🔁T. Smithout: M. McColgan
90+5'

Match stats — Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers

45%Possession55%
17Shots6
8On target5
3Corners5
1.2xG0.89

Goals against chances

Derry City3 from 1.20 xGmore than the chances were worth
Shamrock Rovers3 from 0.89 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Derry City 4-5-1
  • 13T. NorcottG
  • 22C. BarrD
  • 4J. StottD
  • 3P. McCleanD
  • 19B. FlemingD
  • 12D. BurnsM
  • 8A. O'ReillyM
  • 17N. TwiskM
  • 14E. ChapmanM
  • 7M. DuffyM
  • 29T. SmithF
Substitutes
  • 1B. MaherG
  • 23C. DummiganD
  • 2B. CotterD
  • 24B. Lyons-FosterD
  • 25C. GroganD
  • 28J. OlayinkaM
  • 36M. McColganF
  • 32T. DohertyF
  • 38Y. PrigentM
Coach: Mark Connolly
Shamrock Rovers 3-1-4-2
  • 1E. McGintyG
  • 2A. MatthewsD
  • 5L. GraceD
  • 27C. O'SullivanD
  • 8M. HealyM
  • 22T. SobowaleM
  • 26J. O'Sullivan
  • 29J. ByrneM
  • 19A. BrennanM
  • 31M. NoonanF
  • 10G. BurkeF
Substitutes
  • 41A. NoonanG
  • 17L. O'Regan
  • 3E. StevensD
  • 6D. ClearyD
  • 7D. WattsM
  • 11J. MulraneyM
  • 9A. GreeneF
  • 24W. FitzgeraldF
  • 88J. McGovernF
Coach: Stephen Bradley

Form going into Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers

Derry City

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1HNK Rijeka30 July 2026
  • L0-1away to HNK Rijeka23 July 2026

Shamrock Rovers

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to KuPS27 August 2026
  • D1-1KuPS20 August 2026
  • L1-5away to Egnatia Rrogozhinë13 August 2026
  • W3-1Egnatia Rrogozhinë4 August 2026
  • W2-1Ararat-Armenia28 July 2026

What these results say

  • Shamrock Rovers conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Shamrock Rovers scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Shamrock Rovers.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Derry City361115105047+348
1Shamrock Rovers3620885938+2168

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Derry City and Shamrock Rovers

Derry City

GoalsAssists

  • M. Duffy115
  • J. Clarke73

Shamrock Rovers

GoalsAssists

  • J. McGovern107
  • G. Burke84

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.