Utrecht vs PSV Eindhoven Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Utrecht 1-6 PSV Eindhoven.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Utrecht, 25% draw, 42% PSV Eindhoven — fair odds of 3.03, 4.00 and 2.38.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
PSV Eindhoven at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Utrecht vs PSV Eindhoven
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1V. BarkasG
- 2S. HoremansD
- 6G. OfferhausD
- 21N. Ogidi Nwankwo
- 23N. VesterlundM
- 20D. de WitM
- 34D. van den BergM
- 92A. ZagreM
- 11A. AlarconF
- 9A. StepanovF
- 10Y. CathlineF
- 25M. BrouwerG
- 33K. GadellaaG
- 53F. PohlD
- 24J. SchuldesD
- 35V. PlantingaD
- 32P. KloosterboerD
- 14Z. IqbalM
- 17S. van DuijnF
- 15A. BlakeF
- 32M. KovarG
- 8S. DestD
- 6R. FlamingoD
- 4A. ObispoD
- 17Mauro JuniorD
- 24K. SanoM
- 31N. FernandezM
- 5I. PerisicM
- 20G. TilM
- 7R. van BommelM
- 9R. PepiF
- 1N. OlijG
- 41K. NgomG
- 3Y. GasiorowskiD
- 2L. GeertruidaD
- 10P. WannerM
- 18F. KosticM
- 21S. MijnansM
- 19E. BajraktarevicF
- 37A. BouhamdiF
Form going into Utrecht vs PSV Eindhoven
Utrecht
All competitions we cover
- D3-3away to Sparta Rotterdam22 August 2026
- L1-4AZ Alkmaar15 August 2026
- L1-2away to Groningen9 August 2026
PSV Eindhoven
All competitions we cover
- W5-1Groningen23 August 2026
- W2-1away to Excelsior15 August 2026
- D2-2Fortuna Sittard8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Utrecht | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 34 | -13 | 12 |
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 40 | 15 | +25 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Utrecht vs PSV Eindhoven
- 4 April 2026PSV Eindhoven 4–3 UtrechtEredivisie
- 21 December 2025Utrecht 1–2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- 15 February 2025PSV Eindhoven 2–2 UtrechtEredivisie
- 1 December 2024Utrecht 2–5 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- 21 January 2024Utrecht 1–1 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
Leading scorers: Utrecht and PSV Eindhoven
Utrecht
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.
PSV Eindhoven
GoalsAssists
- S. Mijnans92
- G. Til71
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
PSV Eindhoven won 6–1 at Utrecht. The model had made a win for PSV Eindhoven its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: A. Stepanov 6' for Utrecht, R. van Bommel 11' for PSV Eindhoven, G. Til 45' for PSV Eindhoven, Mauro Junior 76' for PSV Eindhoven, S. Mijnans 86' for PSV Eindhoven, G. Til 88' for PSV Eindhoven, S. Dest 90' for PSV Eindhoven. On expected goals it finished 0.30–3.04.