30 August 2026, 10:15 UTC

Utrecht vs PSV Eindhoven Eredivisie prediction & result

Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht
Full time1 – 6

Final score: Utrecht 1-6 PSV Eindhoven.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Utrecht, 25% draw, 42% PSV Eindhoven — fair odds of 3.03, 4.00 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts PSV Eindhoven at 42% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Utrecht0%Draw1%PSV Eindhoven99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽A. Stepanovassist: N. Vesterlund
6'
11'
⚽R. van Bommel
Guus Offerhaus
15'
Dani De Wit
34'
45'
⚽G. Tilassist: S. Dest
Arthur Zagre
49'
🔁N. Vesterlundout: P. Kloosterboer
56'
🔁D. van den Bergout: Z. Iqbal
61'
🔁A. Alarconout: A. Blake
61'
65'
🔁N. Fernandezout: P. Wanner
65'
🔁I. Perisicout: E. Bajraktarevic
72'
Armando Obispo
76'
⚽Mauro Junior
78'
🔁R. Pepiout: S. Mijnans
78'
🔁R. van Bommelout: A. Bouhamdi
🔁Y. Cathlineout: S. van Duijn
84'
🔁A. Zagreout: E. C. Owen
84'
84'
🔁A. Obispoout: Y. Gasiorowski
Vasilis Barkas
85'
86'
⚽Sven Mijnans (pen)
86'
⚽S. Mijnansassist: P. Wanner
88'
⚽G. Tilassist: A. Bouhamdi
Siebe Horemans
90+2'
90'
⚽S. Destassist: A. Bouhamdi

Match stats — Utrecht vs PSV Eindhoven

34%Possession66%
1Shots30
1On target14
0Corners13
0.3xG3.04

Goals against chances

Utrecht1 from 0.30 xGmore than the chances were worth
PSV Eindhoven6 from 3.04 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Utrecht 3-4-3
  • 1V. BarkasG
  • 2S. HoremansD
  • 6G. OfferhausD
  • 21N. Ogidi Nwankwo
  • 23N. VesterlundM
  • 20D. de WitM
  • 34D. van den BergM
  • 92A. ZagreM
  • 11A. AlarconF
  • 9A. StepanovF
  • 10Y. CathlineF
Substitutes
  • 25M. BrouwerG
  • 33K. GadellaaG
  • 53F. PohlD
  • 24J. SchuldesD
  • 35V. PlantingaD
  • 32P. KloosterboerD
  • 14Z. IqbalM
  • 17S. van DuijnF
  • 15A. BlakeF
Coach: Anthony Correia
PSV Eindhoven 4-2-3-1
  • 32M. KovarG
  • 8S. DestD
  • 6R. FlamingoD
  • 4A. ObispoD
  • 17Mauro JuniorD
  • 24K. SanoM
  • 31N. FernandezM
  • 5I. PerisicM
  • 20G. TilM
  • 7R. van BommelM
  • 9R. PepiF
Substitutes
  • 1N. OlijG
  • 41K. NgomG
  • 3Y. GasiorowskiD
  • 2L. GeertruidaD
  • 10P. WannerM
  • 18F. KosticM
  • 21S. MijnansM
  • 19E. BajraktarevicF
  • 37A. BouhamdiF
Coach: Peter Bosz

Form going into Utrecht vs PSV Eindhoven

Utrecht

  • D3-3away to Sparta Rotterdam22 August 2026
  • L1-4AZ Alkmaar15 August 2026

PSV Eindhoven

  • W5-1Groningen23 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Excelsior15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Utrecht61231119-85
1PSV Eindhoven6510227+1516

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Utrecht vs PSV Eindhoven

  • 30 August 2026Utrecht 1–6 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
  • 4 April 2026PSV Eindhoven 4–3 UtrechtEredivisie
  • 21 December 2025Utrecht 1–2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
  • 15 February 2025PSV Eindhoven 2–2 UtrechtEredivisie
  • 1 December 2024Utrecht 2–5 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
  • 21 January 2024Utrecht 1–1 PSV EindhovenEredivisie

Leading scorers: Utrecht and PSV Eindhoven

Utrecht

  • Artem Stepanov5 goals

PSV Eindhoven

  • S. Mijnans4 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.