Vasco da Gama vs Cruzeiro Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Vasco da Gama 3-1 Cruzeiro.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Vasco da Gama, 25% draw, 30% Cruzeiro — fair odds of 2.22, 4.00 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vasco da Gama at 45% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Vasco da Gama vs Cruzeiro
Vasco da Gama
- L1-4away to Palmeiras23 August 2026
- L0-3Santos16 August 2026
Cruzeiro
- W2-1Flamengo22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Corinthians16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Vasco da Gama | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 29 | 41 | -12 | 28 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 42 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Vasco da Gama vs Cruzeiro
- 15 March 2026Cruzeiro 3–3 Vasco da GamaSerie A
- 27 September 2025Vasco da Gama 2–0 CruzeiroSerie A
- 27 April 2025Cruzeiro 1–0 Vasco da GamaSerie A
- 29 September 2024Cruzeiro 1–1 Vasco da GamaSerie A
- 16 June 2024Vasco da Gama 0–0 CruzeiroSerie A
- 22 November 2023Cruzeiro 2–2 Vasco da GamaSerie A
Leading scorers: Vasco da Gama and Cruzeiro
Vasco da Gama
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 29 league goals as a side.
Cruzeiro
- Matheus Pereira8 goals4 assists
- Kaio Jorge7 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.