30 August 2026, 00:20 UTC

Vasco da Gama vs Cruzeiro Serie A prediction & result

Rio de Janeiro
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Vasco da Gama 3-1 Cruzeiro.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Vasco da Gama, 25% draw, 30% Cruzeiro — fair odds of 2.22, 4.00 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Vasco da Gama at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Vasco da Gama99%Draw1%Cruzeiro0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

24'
Joao Marcelo
Adson
27'
⚽Tche Tche
33'
⚽Lucas Freitasassist: Lucas Piton
55'
62'
🔁L. Rodriguezout: Matheus Pereira
62'
🔁J. Costaout: Wesley
🔁Adsonout: J. Rodriguez
70'
🔁S. Sosaout: Cauan Barros
79'
🔁F. Colidioout: David
79'
79'
🔁Ze Lucasout: Lucas Silva
79'
🔁Kenjiout: Felipe Morais
84'
🔁N. Villarrealout: Wanderson
🔁Tche Tcheout: Ramon Rique
85'
🔁A. Gomezout: M. Hinestroza
85'
Cauan Barros
90+4'
⚽Davidassist: Ramon Rique
90'
90'
⚽Felipe Moraisassist: Matheus Pereira

Match stats — Vasco da Gama vs Cruzeiro

46%Possession54%
21Shots11
9On target6
11Corners2
3.24xG0.63

Goals against chances

Vasco da Gama3 from 3.24 xGabout what the chances were worth
Cruzeiro1 from 0.63 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Vasco da Gama 4-1-4-1
  • 1Leo JardimG
  • 96Paulo HenriqueD
  • 46C. CuestaD
  • 43Lucas FreitasD
  • 6Lucas PitonD
  • 5S. SosaM
  • 28AdsonM
  • 3Tche TcheM
  • 23Thiago MendesM
  • 11A. GomezM
  • 9F. ColidioF
Substitutes
  • 13Daniel FuzatoG
  • 2J. RodriguezD
  • 4A. SaldiviaD
  • 82Riquelme AvellarD
  • 80B. AndreD
  • 88Cauan BarrosM
  • 83Ramon RiqueM
  • 70Euder
  • 7DavidF
Coach: Pedro Emanuel
Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1
  • 81Otavio CostaG
  • 12William FurtadoD
  • 43Joao MarceloD
  • 34Jonathan JesusD
  • 27G. RojasD
  • 5Ze LucasM
  • 7Matheus HenriqueM
  • 67J. CostaM
  • 97L. RodriguezM
  • 70KenjiM
  • 22N. VillarrealF
Substitutes
  • 1CassioG
  • 23FagnerD
  • 25L. VillalbaD
  • 2Kaua MoraesD
  • 10Matheus PereiraM
  • 16Lucas SilvaM
  • 29L. RomeroM
  • 94WandersonF
  • 11MarquinhosF
Coach: Jorge Artur

Form going into Vasco da Gama vs Cruzeiro

Vasco da Gama

All competitions we cover

  • L1-4away to Palmeiras23 August 2026
  • L0-3Santos16 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Bahia9 August 2026
  • D1-1Mirassol25 July 2026

Cruzeiro

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1Flamengo22 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Corinthians16 August 2026
  • W3-1Mirassol9 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Coritiba31 July 2026
  • L0-1Botafogo26 July 2026

What these results say

  • Vasco da Gama did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Vasco da Gama conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Cruzeiro won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Cruzeiro scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Cruzeiro conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Vasco da Gama34128144550-544
3Cruzeiro34186105548+760

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Vasco da Gama vs Cruzeiro

  • 15 March 2026Cruzeiro 3–3 Vasco da GamaSerie A
  • 27 September 2025Vasco da Gama 2–0 CruzeiroSerie A
  • 27 April 2025Cruzeiro 1–0 Vasco da GamaSerie A
  • 29 September 2024Cruzeiro 1–1 Vasco da GamaSerie A
  • 16 June 2024Vasco da Gama 0–0 CruzeiroSerie A
  • 22 November 2023Cruzeiro 2–2 Vasco da GamaSerie A

The full Vasco da Gama vs Cruzeiro record →

Leading scorers: Vasco da Gama and Cruzeiro

Vasco da Gama

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 45 league goals as a side.

Cruzeiro

GoalsAssists

  • Kaio Jorge142
  • Matheus Pereira97

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Vasco da Gama beat Cruzeiro 3–1. The model had made a win for Vasco da Gama its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Tche Tche 33' for Vasco da Gama, Lucas Freitas 55' for Vasco da Gama, David 90' for Vasco da Gama, Felipe Morais 90' for Cruzeiro. On expected goals it finished 3.24–0.63.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.