Aberdeen vs Rangers Premiership prediction & result
Final score: Aberdeen 0-1 Rangers.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Aberdeen, 28% draw, 32% Rangers — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Scottish Premiership predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Aberdeen at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Aberdeen vs Rangers
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 27M. MullerG
- 28C. CaddenD
- 23L. MayoD
- 26D. HappeD
- 24N. Guinness-WalkerD
- 25C. RonanM
- 32A. AremuM
- 31M. NteloM
- 20T. OlusanyaM
- 7T. YoganeM
- 15K. NisbetF
- 13N. SumanG
- 5M. KnoesterD
- 22J. MilneD
- 17S. ArmstrongM
- 11L. SmithF
- 21G. MolloyD
- 10A. BriedlM
- 9A. MoulouaF
- 53A. FasanyaF
- 1I. PandurG
- 21D. SterlingD
- 37E. FernandezD
- 24O. MakhanyaD
- 29J. PenriceD
- 14C. DevlinM
- 6D. NeilM
- 52F. CurtisM
- 10M. KimM
- 23D. GassamaM
- 7L. ShanklandF
- 31L. KellyG
- 4B. GodfreyD
- 18K. NedeljkovicD
- 11T. AasgaardM
- 22V. DragojevicM
- 8C. BarronM
- 42T. ChukwuaniM
- 20R. NaderiF
- 17D. YokotaM
Form going into Aberdeen vs Rangers
Aberdeen
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to Dundee8 August 2026
- W2-1Heart of Midlothian1 August 2026
Rangers
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to FK Jablonec27 August 2026
- W1-0FK Jablonec20 August 2026
- D1-1Jagiellonia13 August 2026
- L1-2Hibernian9 August 2026
- L1-2away to Jagiellonia6 August 2026
What these results say
- Rangers failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rangers scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rangers conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Aberdeen | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 11 |
| 2 | Rangers | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Aberdeen vs Rangers
- 21 March 2026Rangers 4–1 AberdeenPremiership
- 11 January 2026Aberdeen 0–2 RangersPremiership
- 6 January 2026Rangers 2–0 AberdeenPremiership
- 11 May 2025Rangers 4–0 AberdeenPremiership
- 13 April 2025Aberdeen 2–2 RangersPremiership
Leading scorers: Aberdeen and Rangers
Aberdeen
GoalsAssists
- K. Nisbet43
Rangers
GoalsAssists
- R. Naderi63
- K. Kelsy40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Rangers won 1–0 at Aberdeen. The model had leaned towards a win for Aberdeen at 40% and given a win for Rangers 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: L. Shankland (penalty) 69' for Rangers. On expected goals it finished 0.45–1.84.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.