Regular Season - 16 · 29 November 2026, 13:00 UTC

Septemvri Sofia vs Levski Sofia First League prediction

Our model says: Septemvri Sofia 0–2 Levski Sofia

The model makes it 13% Septemvri Sofia, 23% draw, 64% Levski Sofia — fair odds of 7.69, 4.35 and 1.56.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (14%).

Expected goals: Septemvri Sofia 0.63, Levski Sofia 2.04.

Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.

One-sided: Levski Sofia are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published 15 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Septemvri Sofia's rating is built from 52 Bulgarian First League matches and Levski Sofia's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 685 matches.

Key facts

Septemvri Sofia are 12th on 11 points from 14 games; Levski Sofia are 2nd on 32 points from 13 games — First League.
Septemvri Sofia have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Lokomotiv Sofia.
Levski Sofia have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to CSKA Sofia.
Last 6 meetings: Levski Sofia 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 1 August 2026, ended Levski Sofia 3–0 Septemvri Sofia.

More Bulgarian First League predictions

All Bulgarian First League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Septemvri Sofia vs Levski Sofia

41%

Both teams to score

50%

Over 2.5 goals

50%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Septemvri Sofia win Draw Levski Sofia win

0–214%
0–114%
0–310%
1–19%
1–29%
0–07%
1–36%

Scores read Septemvri Sofia first; the other scorelines share the remaining 30%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Levski Sofia at 64%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Septemvri Sofia vs Levski Sofia

Septemvri Sofia

First League

W1-0Lokomotiv Sofia6 November 2026
L1-2away to Arda Kardzhali2 November 2026
L0-2away to Cherno More Varna27 October 2026
L2-3Dunav Ruse11 October 2026
L0-3Botev Plovdiv19 September 2026

Levski Sofia

First League

L0-3CSKA Sofia8 November 2026
W1-0away to Dunav Ruse31 October 2026
D1-1away to Arda Kardzhali27 October 2026
W2-0away to Cherno More Varna11 October 2026
D0-0away to Botev Vratsa13 September 2026

What these results say

Septemvri Sofia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Septemvri Sofia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
4 of these 5 matches for Levski Sofia had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

First League table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
12	Septemvri Sofia	14	3	2	9	12	25	-13	11
2	Levski Sofia	13	10	2	1	25	8	+17	32

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Septemvri Sofia vs Levski Sofia

1 August 2026Levski Sofia 3–0 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
30 November 2025Levski Sofia 7–0 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
27 July 2025Septemvri Sofia 1–2 Levski SofiaFirst League
21 April 2025Septemvri Sofia 0–1 Levski SofiaFirst League
9 November 2024Levski Sofia 2–3 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
29 June 2024Levski Sofia 5–0 Septemvri SofiaFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Septemvri Sofia and Levski Sofia

Septemvri Sofia

GoalsAssists

André Filipe Rio Liberal11
F. Herard10
A. Dzhamov10

Levski Sofia

No player in First League's leading scorers — 25 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Septemvri Sofia a 0% chance of the title and Levski Sofia 40.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Septemvri Sofia Levski Sofia

0.44 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.82

2.15 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.04

0.63 Model expected goals (this match) 2.04

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Levski Sofia the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.63 expected goals for Septemvri Sofia against 2.04 for Levski Sofia. Septemvri Sofia's attack/defence rating is 0.44/2.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.04 for Levski Sofia.

Septemvri Sofia carry a model rating of 6.06 against 6.73 for Levski Sofia.

How the model reaches 64% for Levski Sofia to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Levski Sofia to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, Septemvri Sofia's ratings add 16 points and Levski Sofia's ratings add 17 points, which lands on the published 64%.

Two average sides, neutral ground35%
Home advantage31%−4
Septemvri Sofia's ratings47%+16
Levski Sofia's ratings64%+17

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

Septemvri SofiaModelLevski Sofia

Over 1.5 goals

70%

7 of 10 games

75%

model, this match

70%

7 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

50%

5 of 10 games

50%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

20%

2 of 10 games

28%

model, this match

20%

2 of 10 games

Both teams score

50%

5 of 10 games

41%

model, this match

30%

3 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

Septemvri SofiaLevski Sofia

14Matches13

3W 2D 9LRecord10W 2D 1L

12 0.9 per gameGoals scored25 1.9 per game

25 1.8 per gameGoals conceded8 0.6 per game

3 of 14Clean sheets7 of 13

4 of 14Failed to score2 of 13

0 of 3Penalties scored–

39 2.8 per gameYellow cards14 1.1 per game

3Red cards0

4-2-3-1 8×Usual shape4-2-3-1 9×

Septemvri Sofia at home · Levski Sofia away

7Played7

2W 1D 4LRecord5W 2D 0L

7–13Goals for – against11–4

2 of 7Clean sheets3 of 7

League matches only, First League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

Septemvri SofiaLevski Sofia

Septemvri Sofia are 12th after 14 First League matches (between 6th and 14th so far); Levski Sofia are 2nd after 13 (between 1st and 2nd). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All First League matches this season: Septemvri Sofia 14, Levski Sofia 13.

Septemvri Sofia scored 022422

Levski Sofia conceded 210221

Septemvri Sofia score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Levski Sofia have let in 2 there.

Levski Sofia scored 321468

Septemvri Sofia conceded 353446

Levski Sofia score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Septemvri Sofia have let in 6 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Septemvri Sofia

at CSKA Sofia5 Dec · First Leaguewin 9%
vs Spartak Varna13 Feb · First Leaguewin 37%
at CSKA 194820 Feb · First Leaguewin 10%
vs Slavia Sofia27 Feb · First Leaguewin 27%

Levski Sofia

vs Ludogorets3 Dec · First Leaguewin 40%
at Lokomotiv Plovdiv5 Dec · First Leaguewin 55%
vs Lillestrom10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 47%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.