El Mokawloon vs Masr Premier League prediction & result
Final score: El Mokawloon 1-1 Masr.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% El Mokawloon, 31% draw, 33% Masr — fair odds of 2.78, 3.23 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
El Mokawloon at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — El Mokawloon vs Masr
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 18Mohamed FawziG
- 26KahrabaD
- 4Hassan Hussein ShakoushD
- 3Mohamed HamedD
- 23Joseph OchayaD
- 6Dokou DodoM
- 12Omar El WahshM
- 7Anas BaniouwdaM
- 14Mostafa GamalM
- 19Ahmed Ouled BehiM
- 92Idrissa ThiamF
- 27Khaled AbdelfattahD
- 74Mohamed AbdelnasserM
- 29Omar KamalD
- 25Joackiam OjeraF
- 2Youssef Ahmed RamadanD
- 1Mahmoud Abou El-SaoudG
- 8Ahmed Mohamed FouadM
- 28Ibrahim AdelM
- 22Mido GaberM
- 1Ali LotfiG
- 23Tarek AlaaD
- 3Abdallah BakriD
- 34Moussa MohamedD
- 26Mohamed RabiaD
- 73Wajdi NabhanD
- 10Mostafa SaadM
- 19Mohamed EzzM
- 74Mahmoud OukaM
- 9Ahmed AtefF
- 11Abdelrahman El BanoubyF
- 2Mohamed HusseinD
- 72Marwane HajijM
- 33Mohamed IbrahimM
- 7Rafaat KhalilF
- 14Ahmed AdelF
- 16Mohamed MazzikaG
- 15Sameh IbrahimD
- 22Mahmoud Bolbol NabilM
- 40Marwan HegyD
Form going into El Mokawloon vs Masr
El Mokawloon
Premier League
- W2-0away to Wadi Degla15 September 2026
- D1-1Al Ahly9 September 2026
Masr
Premier League
- W2-1Olympic El Qanah17 September 2026
- L1-2away to Enppi9 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Egypt Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | El Mokawloon | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 11 |
| 10 | Masr | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: El Mokawloon vs Masr
- 6 April 2026Masr 0–0 El MokawloonPremier League
- 30 March 2026El Mokawloon 1–1 MasrLeague Cup
- 26 March 2026Masr 0–0 El MokawloonLeague Cup
- 9 August 2025El Mokawloon 0–2 MasrPremier League
- 3 May 2024Masr 0–1 El MokawloonPremier League
Leading scorers: El Mokawloon and Masr
El Mokawloon
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Masr
GoalsAssists
- Ahmed Atef21
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
El Mokawloon and Masr drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for El Mokawloon at 36% and given a draw 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: A. Baniouwda 47' for El Mokawloon, M. Mohamed 89' for Masr. Sent off: M. Hamed (El Mokawloon) 79', M. Rabia (Masr) 90+5'. On expected goals it finished 0.47–1.53.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.