12 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Smouha SC vs Ghazl El Mehalla Premier League prediction & result

Alexandria Stadium, Alexandria
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Smouha SC 1-0 Ghazl El Mehalla.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Smouha SC, 35% draw, 29% Ghazl El Mehalla — fair odds of 2.78, 2.86 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Smouha SC at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Smouha SC98%Draw2%Ghazl El Mehalla0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽P. Badjiassist: K. El Ghandour
34'
P. Badji
45'
46'
🔁A. Emadout: M. Ekbad
46'
🔁M. Abdelsalamout: A. Yasser
M. Ragab
46'
🔁M. Faroukout: A. Samadou
61'
🔁P. Badjiout: F. Farid
61'
🔁Makaronaout: G. Chukwudi
61'
63'
🔁A. Yehiaout: A. Gomaa
72'
🔁M. Ashrafout: R. Arfaoui
🔁A. Gamalout: M. Adel
76'
84'
R. Arfaoui
🔁K. El Ghandourout: C. Niyigena
85'
85'
🔁A. Shikaout: A. Etman
K. Mohamed
90+4'

Match stats — Smouha SC vs Ghazl El Mehalla

48%Possession52%
11Shots11
3On target1
4Corners4
0.91xG0.39

Goals against chances

Smouha SC1 from 0.91 xGabout what the chances were worth
Ghazl El Mehalla0 from 0.39 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Smouha SC 4-1-4-1
  • 28Ahmed MayhoubG
  • 30Ali GamalD
  • 24Mohamed RagabD
  • 3Mohamed DesoukiD
  • 21Abdelghani MohamedD
  • 66Mohamed KoneM
  • 11Mohamed FaroukM
  • 8Samir FekriM
  • 10Khaled El GhandourM
  • 14Mohamed SaeedM
  • 20Pape BadjiF
Substitutes
  • 15Samadou AttidjikouM
  • 23Fady FaridF
  • 29Gabriel ChukwudiF
  • 19Mohamed AdelM
  • 13Clement NiyigenaD
  • 1Hussein TaimorG
  • 22Mohamed AbdelsamiaM
  • 17Ahmed El NadryF
  • 27Hesham BalahaF
Ghazl El Mehalla 4-2-3-1
  • 16Amer MohamedG
  • 23Fares Nechat DjabriD
  • 3Ahmed El AashD
  • 4Ahmed ShoushaD
  • 12Yehia ZakariaD
  • 20Mory TouréM
  • 17Abdel Rahman ShikaM
  • 7Mohamed AshrafM
  • 8Moaz Abdel SalamM
  • 14Abdel Rahman EmadM
  • 63Abdo YehiaF
Substitutes
  • 44Ahmed YasserM
  • 11Mohamed Salem EkbadF
  • 30Amr GomaaF
  • 9Rached ArfaouiF
  • 22Ahmed EtmanM
  • 25Mohamed KokoG
  • 15Ahmed GamalD
  • 10Bassam WalidD
  • 5Abdel Fattah ShetaM

Form going into Smouha SC vs Ghazl El Mehalla

Smouha SC

Premier League

  • W1-0away to El Geish14 September 2026
  • L0-2Ceramica Cleopatra8 September 2026

Ghazl El Mehalla

Premier League

  • L0-1Zamalek SC16 September 2026
  • L1-3away to National Bank of Egypt7 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Egypt Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Smouha SC832355011
17Ghazl El Mehalla8215411-77

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Smouha SC vs Ghazl El Mehalla

  • 27 November 2025Smouha SC 3–1 Ghazl El MehallaCup
  • 16 August 2025Ghazl El Mehalla 0–0 Smouha SCPremier League
  • 11 April 2025Ghazl El Mehalla 1–0 Smouha SCPremier League
  • 26 December 2024Smouha SC 2–4 Ghazl El MehallaPremier League
  • 2 May 2023Ghazl El Mehalla 0–2 Smouha SCPremier League

Leading scorers: Smouha SC and Ghazl El Mehalla

Smouha SC

GoalsAssists

  • P. Badji21

Ghazl El Mehalla

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Smouha SC beat Ghazl El Mehalla 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Smouha SC at 36%. The goal: P. Badji 34' for Smouha SC. On expected goals it finished 0.91–0.39.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.