Pakhtakor vs Al-Qadisiyah FC AFC Champions League Elite prediction & result
Final score: Pakhtakor 1-1 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 16% Pakhtakor, 20% draw, 64% Al-Qadisiyah FC — fair odds of 6.25, 5.00 and 1.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All AFC Champions League Elite predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Al-Qadisiyah FC at 64%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Pakhtakor vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12V. NazarovG
- 55M. AbdumajidovD
- 5M. PouraliganjiD
- 4Zayed TahseenD
- 34S. NasrullayevD
- 10A. MozgovoyM
- 23Abdurauf Bo'riyevM
- 7K. AlijonovM
- 50FlamarionM
- 21B. ResanM
- 90S. ChineduF
- 22Mukhammad-Bobur KarimovD
- 35S. KuvvatovG
- 99M. MurkaevG
- 17D. KhamdamovM
- 16Miraziz AbdukarimovD
- 20D. AbdullayevD
- 77O. BozorovM
- 29Aymen HusseinF
- 8D. SaitovM
- 1K. CasteelsG
- 4Jehad Abdullatif AhmD
- 17G. ÁlvarezD
- 26Badra Diabbate AliD
- 8N. NándezM
- 14T. ReijndersM
- 5J. WeiglM
- 10Musab Al JuwayrM
- 22C. Bonsu BaahM
- 33J. QuiñonesF
- 32M. ReteguiF
- 70S. SuleimanF
- 30M. SangareF
- 27E. HoussaM
- 35A. Al SiyahiM
- 12Yasir Al ShahraniD
- 9Abdullah Al SalemF
- 15Mohammed Al QahtaniF
- 28Ahmed Al KassarG
- 18Abdulmalik Al-JaberM
Form going into Pakhtakor vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
Pakhtakor
AFC Champions League Elite
- D1-1away to Al-Ahli Jeddah14 September 2026
Al-Qadisiyah FC
AFC Champions League Elite
- W2-1Al-Wasl FC14 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Pakhtakor | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 2 |
| 5 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Pakhtakor and Al-Qadisiyah FC
Pakhtakor
No player in AFC Champions League Elite's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Al-Qadisiyah FC
GoalsAssists
- J. Quiñones41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Pakhtakor and Al-Qadisiyah FC drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Al-Qadisiyah FC at 64% and given a draw 20%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Tijjani Reijnders 35' for Al-Qadisiyah FC, Dostonbek Khamdamov (penalty) 89' for Pakhtakor. On expected goals it finished 1.79–1.54.
How the call on Pakhtakor v Al-Qadisiyah FC has moved
First published on 28 Sep at 21% / 25% / 54% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 16% / 20% / 64%: the biggest move is Al-Qadisiyah FC's chance of winning, up 10 points.
- Pakhtakor win16%▼ −5
- Draw20%▼ −5
- Al-Qadisiyah FC win64%▲ +10
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.