Palermo
vs
Benevento
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Palermo 1–0 Benevento
The model makes it 51% Palermo, 26% draw, 23% Benevento — fair odds of 1.96, 3.85 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Palermo 1.77, Benevento 1.03.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Edge to Palermo: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Palermo's rating is built from 51 Serie B matches and Benevento's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 889 matches.
Key facts
- Palermo are top on 27 points from 11 games; Benevento are 6th on 16 points from 11 games — Serie B.
- Palermo are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Ascoli.
- Benevento are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Avellino.
- Last 4 meetings: Palermo 2 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 22 April 2023, ended Palermo 1–1 Benevento.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Palermo vs Benevento
Has the model earned this number?
Palermo at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Palermo vs Benevento
Palermo
Serie B
- D1-1away to Ascoli6 November 2026
- W3-1Vicenza Virtus1 November 2026
- D3-3away to Pisa28 October 2026
- W2-1Carrarese25 October 2026
- W2-0away to Mantova17 October 2026
Benevento
Serie B
- D1-1Avellino7 November 2026
- L0-2away to Cremonese31 October 2026
- D1-1Catanzaro27 October 2026
- W3-0away to Arezzo24 October 2026
- D2-2Vicenza Virtus17 October 2026
What these results say
- Palermo went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Palermo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Palermo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Benevento failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Benevento scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Benevento conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palermo | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 25 | 13 | +12 | 27 |
| 6 | Benevento | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Palermo
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 55% today
Benevento
Chance to finish in the top two · 4% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Palermo vs Benevento
- 22 April 2023Palermo 1–1 BeneventoSerie B
- 4 December 2022Benevento 0–1 PalermoSerie B
- 14 April 2019Benevento 1–2 PalermoSerie B
- 30 November 2018Palermo 0–0 BeneventoSerie B
Leading scorers: Palermo and Benevento
Palermo
GoalsAssists
- D. Johnsen75
- D. Vavassori61
Benevento
GoalsAssists
- A. Siatounis40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Palermo a 54.8% chance of the title and Benevento 1.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Palermo the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Palermo against 1.03 for Benevento. Palermo's attack/defence rating is 0.99/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.2 for Benevento.
How the model reaches 51% for Palermo to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Palermo to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Palermo's ratings add 5 points and Benevento's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 51%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Palermo's ratings47%+5
- Benevento's ratings51%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Palermo at home · Benevento away
League matches only, Serie B, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Palermo 11, Benevento 11.
Palermo score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Benevento have let in 0 there.
Benevento score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Palermo have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Palermo
- at Hellas Verona5 Dec · Serie Bwin 35%
- vs Cremonese8 Dec · Serie Bwin 50%
- at Cesena12 Dec · Serie Bwin 47%
Benevento
- at Juve Stabia5 Dec · Serie Bwin 31%
- vs Padova8 Dec · Serie Bwin 46%
- at Mantova12 Dec · Serie Bwin 31%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.