Regular Season - 14 · 28 November 2026, 14:00 UTC

Vicenza Virtus vs Cesena Serie B prediction

Stadio Romeo Menti, Vicenza

Our model says: Vicenza Virtus 2–1 Cesena

The model makes it 40% Vicenza Virtus, 27% draw, 33% Cesena — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Vicenza Virtus 1.60, Cesena 1.40.

Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Vicenza Virtus's rating is built from 11 Serie B matches and Cesena's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 889 matches.

Key facts

  • Vicenza Virtus are 18th on 9 points from 11 games; Cesena are 11th on 15 points from 11 games — Serie B.
  • Vicenza Virtus are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat at home to Cremonese.
  • Cesena are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Catanzaro.
  • Last 6 meetings: Vicenza Virtus 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 31 May 2023, ended Cesena 0–0 Vicenza Virtus.

More Serie B predictions

All Serie B predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Vicenza Virtus vs Cesena

61%
Both teams to score
58%
Over 2.5 goals
42%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Vicenza Virtus win Draw Cesena win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 1–28%
  4. 1–07%
  5. 0–16%
  6. 2–06%
  7. 2–26%

Scores read Vicenza Virtus first; the other scorelines share the remaining 45%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Vicenza Virtus at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Vicenza Virtus vs Cesena

Vicenza Virtus

Serie B

  • L1-4Cremonese8 November 2026
  • L1-3away to Palermo1 November 2026
  • L1-2Modena27 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Empoli23 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Benevento17 October 2026

Cesena

Serie B

  • W1-0Catanzaro7 November 2026
  • D1-1away to Sudtirol31 October 2026
  • W2-1Empoli27 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Modena24 October 2026
  • D1-1Avellino18 October 2026

What these results say

  • Vicenza Virtus scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Vicenza Virtus failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Vicenza Virtus conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Cesena scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Cesena conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Vicenza Virtus112361424-109
11Cesena113621214-215

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Vicenza Virtus

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 46% today

Win 39%
Draw 48%
Defeat 53%

Cesena

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 14% today

Win 9%
Draw 14%
Defeat 18%

From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Vicenza Virtus vs Cesena

  • 31 May 2023Cesena 0–0 Vicenza VirtusSerie C - Promotion - Play-offs
  • 27 May 2023Vicenza Virtus 0–0 CesenaSerie C - Promotion - Play-offs
  • 23 February 2020Cesena 1–3 Vicenza VirtusSerie C - Girone B
  • 7 October 2019Vicenza Virtus 2–1 CesenaSerie C - Girone B
  • 4 March 2017Cesena 1–1 Vicenza VirtusSerie B
  • 9 October 2016Vicenza Virtus 0–0 CesenaSerie B

Leading scorers: Vicenza Virtus and Cesena

Vicenza Virtus

GoalsAssists

  • S. Merkaj31

Cesena

GoalsAssists

  • C. Shpendi81

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Cesena (11th, with Vicenza Virtus 18th), while our numbers lean to Vicenza Virtus. Vicenza Virtus rate 0.72 in attack and 1.91 in defence, Cesena 0.63 and 1.49 (lower is better in defence), so Vicenza Virtus have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 6-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Vicenza Virtus a 0% chance of the title and Cesena 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Vicenza Virtus Cesena
0.72 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.63
1.91 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.49
1.60 Model expected goals (this match) 1.40

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Vicenza Virtus the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus against 1.40 for Cesena. Vicenza Virtus's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.49 for Cesena.

Vicenza Virtus carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.42 for Cesena. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 40% for Vicenza Virtus to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Vicenza Virtus to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Vicenza Virtus's ratings take away 1 point and Cesena's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 40%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage42%+6
  3. Both sides at this match's level44%+2
  4. Vicenza Virtus's ratings43%−1
  5. Cesena's ratings40%−3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Vicenza VirtusCesena
11Matches11
2W 3D 6LRecord3W 6D 2L
14 1.3 per gameGoals scored12 1.1 per game
24 2.2 per gameGoals conceded14 1.3 per game
1 of 11Clean sheets1 of 11
2 of 11Failed to score2 of 11
–Penalties scored1 of 1
27 2.5 per gameYellow cards23 2.1 per game
0Red cards2
3-5-2 8×Usual shape4-3-3 6×

Vicenza Virtus at home · Cesena away

5Played5
1W 1D 3LRecord1W 2D 2L
6–12Goals for – against4–8
0 of 5Clean sheets0 of 5

League matches only, Serie B, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Serie B matches this season: Vicenza Virtus 11, Cesena 11.

Vicenza Virtus scored 122224
Cesena conceded 033052

Vicenza Virtus score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Cesena have let in 2 there.

Cesena scored 043212
Vicenza Virtus conceded 263517

Cesena score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Vicenza Virtus have let in 6 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

Vicenza Virtus

  • at Padova5 Dec · Serie Bwin 25%
  • vs Mantova8 Dec · Serie Bwin 33%
  • at Sampdoria12 Dec · Serie Bwin 29%

Cesena

  • vs Carrarese5 Dec · Serie Bwin 40%
  • at Arezzo8 Dec · Serie Bwin 36%
  • vs Palermo12 Dec · Serie Bwin 27%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.