26 September 2026, 16:00 UTC

Iceland vs Estonia UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Laugardalsvöllur, Reykjavik
Referee: Milos Milanovic
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Iceland 1-1 Estonia.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Iceland, 30% draw, 37% Estonia — fair odds of 3.03, 3.33 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Estonia at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Iceland3%Draw93%Estonia4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Albert Gudmundssonout: Isak Thorvaldsson
30'
⚽Andri Guðjohnsenassist: Hákon Arnar Haraldsson
45'
52'
⚽Kevor Palumets (pen)
54'
Karol Mets
61'
🔁Mihkel Ainsaluout: Patrik Kristal
64'
⚽Maksim Paskotsiassist: Rasmus Peetson
🔁Jón Dagur Þórsteinssonout: Arnór Sigurðsson
75'
🔁Ísak Bergmann Jóhannessonout: Gylfi Sigurðsson
75'
78'
🔁karel mustmaaout: Joonas Tamm
81'
Rasmus Peetson
Stefán Teitur Thórdarson
84'
🔁Mikael Ellertssonout: Logi Tomasson
84'
🔁Andri Guðjohnsenout: Kristall Mani Ingason
85'
86'
🔁Mattias Käitout: Markus Soomets

Match stats — Iceland vs Estonia

63%Possession37%
19Shots8
8On target5
7Corners3

Line-ups

Iceland 4-4-2
  • 12H. ValdimarssonG
  • 4V. PálssonD
  • 16S. ÞórðarsonD
  • 3D. GrétarssonD
  • 19M. EllertssonD
  • 20J. ÞorsteinssonM
  • 7H. HaraldssonM
  • 8Í. Bergmann JóhannessonM
  • 11A. GuðmundssonM
  • 22A. GuðjohnsenF
  • 9O. ÓskarssonF
Substitutes
  • 18M. AndersonM
  • 14B. WillumssonF
  • 6A. BaldurssonM
  • 13A. EinarssonG
  • 15K. IngasonF
  • 23H. MagnússonD
  • 17A. GunnarssonM
  • 1R. RúnarssonG
  • 21A. SigurðssonM
Coach: A. Gunnlaugsson
Estonia 5-3-2
  • 1K. HeinG
  • 6R. PeetsonD
  • 3M. PaskotšiD
  • 2M. KuuskD
  • 18K. MetsD
  • 19M. Schjønning-LarsenD
  • 10K. PalumetsM
  • 20M. PoomM
  • 4M. KäitM
  • 11M. AinsaluF
  • 9Karel MustmaaF
Substitutes
  • 21M. MännilaanF
  • 17M. MillerM
  • 7R. SaarmaM
  • 13J. SalisteD
  • 15M. SkvortsovM
  • 8M. SoometsM
  • 5E. TõugjasD
  • 22K. VallnerG
  • 16A. TammF
Coach: J. Henn

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Iceland5320121+1111
2Estonia523031+29

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Iceland vs Estonia

  • 8 January 2023Iceland 1–1 EstoniaFriendlies

Leading scorers: Iceland and Estonia

Iceland

GoalsAssists

  • A. Guðjohnsen51
  • O. Óskarsson42

Estonia

No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Iceland and Estonia drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Estonia at 37% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Andri Guðjohnsen 45' for Iceland, Maksim Paskotsi 64' for Estonia.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.