26 September 2026, 16:00 UTC

San Marino vs Finland UEFA Nations League prediction & result

San Marino Stadium, Serravalle
Referee: Nathan Verboomen
Full time0 – 7

Final score: San Marino 0-7 Finland.

Before kick-off the model made it 22% San Marino, 28% draw, 50% Finland — fair odds of 4.55, 3.57 and 2.00.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Finland at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

San Marino1%Draw0%Finland99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
⚽Joel Pohjanpalo
14'
⚽adrian svanbackassist: Leo Walta
33'
⚽Benjamin Källmanassist: adrian svanback
43'
Adam Markhiev
45'
🔁Topi Keskinenout: Adam Stahl
45'
🔁Ville Koskiout: Tony Miettinen
45'
🔁Adam Markhievout: Santeri Väänänen
50'
⚽Leo Walta
Alessandro Golinucci
51'
55'
⚽Leo Waltaassist: Juho Lähteenmäki
🔁Lorenzo·Capicchioniout: Marcello Mularoni
59'
🔁Nicholas Giacopettiout: Samuel·Pancotti
59'
59'
🔁Benjamin Källmanout: Robin Lod
🔁S. Zannoniout: S. Giocondi
70'
🔁F. Fabbriout: Balda Enea Della
70'
70'
🔁Leo Waltaout: Onni Valakari
79'
⚽Joel Pohjanpaloassist: adrian svanback
🔁Michele Cevoliout: giacomo benvenuti
79'
C. Meloni
86'
88'
⚽Joel Pohjanpalo (pen)

Match stats — San Marino vs Finland

25%Possession75%
1Shots23
0On target11
0Corners4

Line-ups

San Marino 4-1-2-1-2
  • 1E. ColomboG
  • 4F. FabbriD
  • 5M. CevoliD
  • 15M. PasoliniD
  • 12A. TosiD
  • 8L. CapicchioniM
  • 16C. MeloniM
  • 17A. GolinucciM
  • 10S. ZannoniM
  • 11N. GiacopettiF
  • 9N. NanniF
Substitutes
  • 13M. ZavoliG
  • 6D. RossiD
  • 19S. PancottiF
  • 22M. MularoniM
  • 2G. BenvenutiD
  • 23M. De AngelisG
  • 21L. LazzariM
  • 7G. CapicchioniF
  • 14Fausto Marino Salicioni OrtizF
Coach: R. Cevoli
Finland 4-3-3
  • 12V. SinisaloG
  • 18T. KeskinenD
  • 21V. KoskiD
  • 15S. MiettinenD
  • 13J. LähteenmäkiD
  • 14K. KairinenM
  • 11A. MarhievM
  • 10L. WaltaM
  • 22A. SvanbäckF
  • 20J. PohjanpaloF
  • 19B. KällmanF
Substitutes
  • 9S. VäänänenM
  • 2L. VäisänenD
  • 3A. StåhlD
  • 4T. MiettinenD
  • 17R. MahutaD
  • 8R. LodM
  • 6G. KamaraM
  • 5O. JukkolaM
  • 1L. HrádeckýG
Coach: J. Friis

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4San Marino5005118-170
3Finland521294+57

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: San Marino vs Finland

  • 20 November 2023San Marino 1–2 FinlandEuro Championship - Qualification
  • 19 June 2023Finland 6–0 San MarinoEuro Championship - Qualification

Leading scorers: San Marino and Finland

San Marino

No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.

Finland

GoalsAssists

  • L. Walta41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Finland won 7–0 at San Marino. The model had made a win for Finland its most likely outcome, at 50%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Joel Pohjanpalo 5' for Finland, adrian svanback 14' for Finland, Benjamin Källman 33' for Finland, Leo Walta 50' for Finland, Leo Walta 55' for Finland, Joel Pohjanpalo 79' for Finland, Joel Pohjanpalo (penalty) 88' for Finland. Sent off: Alessandro Golinucci (San Marino) 51'.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.