18 October 2026, 10:00 UTC

Polessya vs Dynamo Kyiv Premier League prediction & result

Tsentralnyi Stadion, Zhytomyr
Referee: Maksym Kozyriatskyi
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Polessya 3-1 Dynamo Kyiv.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Polessya, 26% draw, 27% Dynamo Kyiv — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Polessya at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Polessya99%Draw1%Dynamo Kyiv0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Oleg Kudryk
5'
🔁Vladyslav Veletenout: Yevgen Volynets
8'
🔁leandro andradeout: Ilir Krasniqi
8'
19'
⚽Taras Mykhavkoassist: Mykola Shaparenko
⚽Igor Krasnopirassist: Oleksandr Andriyevskyi
26'
39'
Vladyslav Dubinchak
Giorgi Maisuradze
45+4'
Andrusw Araujo
45+4'
Bogdan Mykhaylichenko
50'
54'
Valentyn Rubchynskyi
58'
🔁Mykola Shaparenkoout: Justin Lonwijk
58'
🔁Vladyslav Kabaevout: Keasse Bah
🔁Maksym Bragaruout: Borys Krushynskyi
60'
🔁Oleksandr Andriyevskyiout: Ruslan Babenko
60'
67'
Ruslan Neshcheret
⚽Igor Krasnopir (pen)
68'
70'
🔁Nazar Voloshynout: Andriy Yarmolenko
⚽Igor Krasnopirassist: Bogdan Mykhaylichenko
76'
🔁Igor Krasnopirout: Mykola Gayduchyk
81'
83'
🔁Valentyn Rubchynskyiout: Mykola Mykhaylenko

Match stats — Polessya vs Dynamo Kyiv

40%Possession60%
0On target0

Line-ups

Polessya 4-1-4-1
  • 1O. KudrykG
  • 31G. MaisuradzeD
  • 44S. ChobotenkoD
  • 5E. SarapiyD
  • 15B. MykhailichenkoD
  • 22A. AraujoM
  • 11Leandro AndradeM
  • 18O. AndrievskyiM
  • 45M. BragaruM
  • 10V. VeletenM
  • 95I. KrasnopirF
Substitutes
  • 89M. GayduchykF
  • 9O. FilippovF
  • 19V. ShepelevM
  • 14L. EmërllahuM
  • 27O. FedorM
  • 7O. NazarenkoM
  • 77N. MakarenkoG
  • 4M. KravchenkoD
  • 16I. KrasniqiD
Coach: R. Rotan
Dynamo Kyiv 4-1-4-1
  • 35R. NeshcheretG
  • 5O. SychD
  • 94T. KędzioraD
  • 32T. MykhavkoD
  • 44V. DubinchakD
  • 6V. BrazhkoM
  • 9N. VoloshynM
  • 15V. RubchynskyiM
  • 10M. ShaparenkoM
  • 22V. KabaevM
  • 11M. PonomarenkoF
Substitutes
  • 99P. MounguengueF
  • 42K. BahF
  • 21J. LonwijkM
  • 7A. YarmolenkoM
  • 47Gustavo PradoM
  • 16S. OgundanaM
  • 91M. MykhaylenkoM
  • 18O. TymchykD
  • 34V. ZakharchenkoD
Coach: Igor Kostyuk

Form going into Polessya vs Dynamo Kyiv

Polessya

Premier League

  • D2-2away to Bukovyna11 October 2026
  • W1-0Kryvbas KR18 September 2026

Dynamo Kyiv

Premier League

  • W1-0Karpaty11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ukraine Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Polessya11911258+1728
3Dynamo Kyiv11722169+723

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Polessya vs Dynamo Kyiv

  • 8 March 2026Polessya 1–2 Dynamo KyivPremier League
  • 31 August 2025Dynamo Kyiv 4–1 PolessyaPremier League
  • 9 May 2025Polessya 0–0 Dynamo KyivPremier League
  • 10 November 2024Dynamo Kyiv 2–1 PolessyaPremier League
  • 21 April 2024Dynamo Kyiv 3–0 PolessyaPremier League
  • 6 October 2023Polessya 3–2 Dynamo KyivPremier League

Leading scorers: Polessya and Dynamo Kyiv

Polessya

GoalsAssists

  • I. Krasnopir81
  • V. Veleten41

Dynamo Kyiv

GoalsAssists

  • M. Ponomarenko60

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Polessya beat Dynamo Kyiv 3–1. The model had made a win for Polessya its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Taras Mykhavko 19' for Dynamo Kyiv, Igor Krasnopir 26' for Polessya, Igor Krasnopir (penalty) 68' for Polessya, Igor Krasnopir 76' for Polessya. Sent off: Oleg Kudryk (Polessya) 5'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Polessya a 86.0% chance to finish in the top four: 89.9% after a win, 84.8% after a draw, 80.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 89.9%, 3.9 points higher than before the match.

For Dynamo Kyiv the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 73.5% going in: 81.7% after a win, 74.7% after a draw, 69.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 69.5%, 4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.