Cerro Porteno vs Sportivo Ameliano Division Profesional - Clausura prediction & result
Final score: Cerro Porteno 2-2 Sportivo Ameliano.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Cerro Porteno, 26% draw, 22% Sportivo Ameliano — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Cerro Porteno at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cerro Porteno vs Sportivo Ameliano
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12A. MartínezG
- 2F. DomínguezD
- 4A. CañeteD
- 14L. QuintanaD
- 13G. BenítezD
- 5J. MorelM
- 7D. RodríguezM
- 32C. BobadillaM
- 34C. ChenaM
- 40M. KlimowiczM
- 19P. VegettiF
- 27J. TorresF
- 1M. RoffoG
- 23G. VelázquezD
- 21S. AraújoF
- 20E. AlmendraM
- 31I. AlisedaM
- 28C. FrancoF
- 18A. GamarraM
- 30G. GiménezM
- 35Á. SánchezG
- 13R. PeraltaD
- 26J. GonzálezD
- 22L. FalabellaD
- 34M. BenítezD
- 8E. MoreiraM
- 6J. BenítezM
- 7F. VeraM
- 10R. CabralM
- 18L. OrtizM
- 9C. OcamposF
- 20V. LarraldeM
- 21F. FrancoD
- 40A. ContreraM
- 32G. CamargoM
- 3F. BáezD
- 31E. BritezM
- 5H. BenítezD
- 1J. BalbuenaG
- 24L. BentosM
Form going into Cerro Porteno vs Sportivo Ameliano
Cerro Porteno
All competitions we cover
- W3-0away to Sportivo Luqueno10 October 2026
- L0-22 de Mayo5 October 2026
Sportivo Ameliano
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to 2 de Mayo12 October 2026
- L1-2Rubio NU6 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Cerro Porteno | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 25 | 20 | +5 | 28 |
| 9 | Sportivo Ameliano | 19 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cerro Porteno vs Sportivo Ameliano
- 8 August 2026Sportivo Ameliano 1–0 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 24 April 2026Cerro Porteno 1–1 Sportivo AmelianoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 25 February 2026Sportivo Ameliano 0–1 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 20 September 2025Cerro Porteno 2–0 Sportivo AmelianoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 12 July 2025Sportivo Ameliano 0–1 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 21 May 2025Sportivo Ameliano 0–0 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Apertura
Leading scorers: Cerro Porteno and Sportivo Ameliano
Cerro Porteno
GoalsAssists
- P. Vegetti80
- J. Morel50
- D. Rodríguez45
Sportivo Ameliano
GoalsAssists
- C. Ocampos53
- R. Torales51
- E. Moreira50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Cerro Porteno and Sportivo Ameliano drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Cerro Porteno at 52% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Jorge Morel 40' for Cerro Porteno, Jorge Morel (penalty) 53' for Cerro Porteno, Cristhian·Ocampos (penalty) 59' for Sportivo Ameliano, Luis María Ayala Bentos 85' for Sportivo Ameliano. Sent off: Lucas Ariel Quintana (Cerro Porteno) 76'. On expected goals it finished 1.75–1.74.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Cerro Porteno a 11.4% chance to finish in the top four: 14.9% after a win, 7.3% after a draw, 4.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 7.3%, 4.1 points lower than before the match.
For Sportivo Ameliano the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 2.1% going in: 5.4% after a win, 1.7% after a draw, under 1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 1.7%.
Read from our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Cerro Porteno v Sportivo Ameliano has moved
First published on 5 Oct at 45% / 29% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 52% / 26% / 22%: the biggest move is Cerro Porteno's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- Cerro Porteno win52%▲ +7
- Draw26%▼ −3
- Sportivo Ameliano win22%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.