FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun Super League prediction & result
Final score: FC Basel 1893 4-2 FC Thun.
Before kick-off the model made it 66% FC Basel 1893, 20% draw, 14% FC Thun — fair odds of 1.52, 5.00 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Basel 1893 at 66% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13Mirko SalviG
- 6Keigo TsunemotoD
- 24Flavius DaniliucD
- 55Akpe VictoryD
- 29Moussa CisséD
- 22Leo LeroyM
- 4Bećir OmeragićM
- 8Ludwig ThorellM
- 18Asane SowF
- 9Žan CelarF
- 11Kazeem OlaigbeF
- 10Xherdan ShaqiriM
- 7Philip OteleF
- 37Giacomo KolotoF
- 3Nicolas VouillozD
- 44Jonas HarderM
- 49Renato Widmer D'AutiliaG
- 5MetinhoM
- 14Andrej BačaninM
- 23Albian AjetiF
- 1Niklas SteffenG
- 37Lucien DählerD
- 5Nicolas BürgyD
- 19Jan BamertD
- 47Fabio FehrD
- 70Nils ReichmuthM
- 8Fabio SaizM
- 13Nassim ZoukitM
- 21Dorian DerbaciM
- 11Layton StewartF
- 80Simon LengenF
- 16Justin RothM
- 33Marc GutbubF
- 30Nico MaierM
- 27Michael HeuleD
- 96Brighton LabeauF
- 25Tim SpycherG
- 17Ashvin BalarubanD
- 78Valmir MatoshiM
- 52Adam IlicM
Form going into FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun
FC Basel 1893
- L0-1Lausanne1 August 2026
- W1-0away to Servette FC25 July 2026
FC Thun
- W3-0Vikingur Reykjavik6 August 2026
- L0-6BSC Young Boys1 August 2026
- L2-3away to Dinamo Zagreb28 July 2026
- W3-1away to FC Luzern25 July 2026
- D1-1Dinamo Zagreb21 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | FC Basel 1893 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 13 |
| 10 | FC Thun | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun
- 9 August 2026FC Basel 1893 4–2 FC ThunSuper League
- 2 May 2026FC Basel 1893 3–1 FC ThunSuper League
- 18 April 2026FC Thun 3–1 FC Basel 1893Super League
- 1 February 2026FC Basel 1893 1–2 FC ThunSuper League
- 13 September 2025FC Thun 1–3 FC Basel 1893Super League
- 11 January 2025FC Basel 1893 2–0 FC ThunFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: FC Basel 1893 and FC Thun
FC Basel 1893
- Ž. Celar5 goals1 assists
- A. Sow3 goals4 assists
- X. Shaqiri3 goals1 assists
FC Thun
- B. Labeau3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.