FC Lugano vs FC Zurich Super League prediction & result
Final score: FC Lugano 5-0 FC Zurich.
Before kick-off the model made it 78% FC Lugano, 12% draw, 10% FC Zurich — fair odds of 1.28, 8.33 and 10.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Lugano at 78% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Lugano vs FC Zurich
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 16David von BallmoosG
- 6Antonios PapadopoulosD
- 17Lars Lukas MaiD
- 3Hannes DelcroixD
- 46Mattia ZanottiM
- 8Anto GrgićM
- 25Uran BislimiM
- 21Yanis CimignaniM
- 11Renato SteffenF
- 24Elias PihlströmF
- 91Kevin BehrensF
- 27Daniel Dos SantosM
- 30Dereck MoncadaF
- 14Ahmed KendouciM
- 4Damian KelvinD
- 26Martim MarquesD
- 28Felix GebhardtG
- 18Joel BichselD
- 23Gjan AjdinM
- 22Beckham CastroF
- 13Heinz LindnerG
- 3Selmin HodzaD
- 2Lindrit KamberiD
- 27Ilan SauterD
- 43Neil VolkenD
- 21Leandro SchödlerM
- 7Bledian KrasniqiM
- 8Livano ComenenciaM
- 23Valon BerishaM
- 11Umeh EmmanuelM
- 19Philippe KenyF
- 17Kevin SpadanudaM
- 9Juan José PereaF
- 18Mohamed BangouraM
- 14Nevio Di GiustoM
- 60Tyrese PinthusG
- 42Alexander HackD
- 44Sebastian WalkerD
- 38Miguel ReichmuthM
- 49Din RamicF
Form going into FC Lugano vs FC Zurich
FC Lugano
- W2-0NSI Runavik6 August 2026
- W4-1away to Grasshoppers2 August 2026
- W5-1away to Dukagjini29 July 2026
- W2-1FC Vaduz26 July 2026
- W1-0Dukagjini23 July 2026
FC Zurich
- W2-1Servette FC1 August 2026
- L1-2away to FC St. Gallen26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 7 | +16 | 22 |
| 7 | FC Zurich | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Lugano vs FC Zurich
- 9 August 2026FC Lugano 5–0 FC ZurichSuper League
- 11 April 2026FC Zurich 0–1 FC LuganoSuper League
- 17 December 2025FC Zurich 0–1 FC LuganoSuper League
- 18 October 2025FC Lugano 1–0 FC ZurichSuper League
- 2 March 2025FC Lugano 0–3 FC ZurichSuper League
- 24 November 2024FC Lugano 4–1 FC ZurichSuper League
Leading scorers: FC Lugano and FC Zurich
FC Lugano
- D. Moncada3 goals1 assists
- E. Pihlström3 goals
- Y. Cimignani3 goals
FC Zurich
- U. Emmanuel4 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.