FC St. Gallen vs FC Luzern Super League prediction & result
Final score: FC St. Gallen 2-2 FC Luzern.
Before kick-off the model made it 67% FC St. Gallen, 16% draw, 17% FC Luzern — fair odds of 1.49, 6.25 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC St. Gallen at 67% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC St. Gallen vs FC Luzern
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Lawrence Ati ZigiG
- 74Joel RuizD
- 4Jozo StanićD
- 36Chima OkorojiD
- 28Hugo VandermerschM
- 16Lukas GörtlerM
- 10Lukas DaschnerM
- 20Leon FrokajM
- 64Mihailo StevanovićM
- 7Christian WitzigF
- 14Aliou BaldeF
- 9Andrin HunzikerF
- 47Enoch OwusuM
- 23Betim FazlijiM
- 3Colin Noah Kleine-BekelD
- 63Corsin KonietzkeM
- 25Lukas WatkowiakG
- 68Mostafa HeydariD
- 31Diego BesioF
- 1Simon SimoniG
- 20Pius DornD
- 13Bung Hua FreimannD
- 5Stefan KneževićD
- 22Rúben DantasD
- 6Leonardo BertoneM
- 10Lucas SilvaM
- 16Oscar KabwitM
- 11Matteo Di GiustoM
- 14Andrejs CigaņiksM
- 71Sascha MeyerF
- 19Daniel MikołajewskiF
- 15Nando ToggenburgerF
- 80Mio ZimmermannM
- 7Aurelio OehlersF
- 3Jesper LofgrenD
- 63Raphael RadtkeG
- 21Loïc LüthiD
- 34Demir XhemalijaM
- 27Lars VilligerF
Form going into FC St. Gallen vs FC Luzern
FC St. Gallen
- W3-1away to Sheriff Tiraspol6 August 2026
- W3-2away to FC Vaduz2 August 2026
- L0-5away to Benfica30 July 2026
- W2-1FC Zurich26 July 2026
- W2-1Benfica23 July 2026
FC Luzern
- L0-3away to FC Sion2 August 2026
- L1-3FC Thun25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | FC St. Gallen | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 10 |
| 8 | FC Luzern | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC St. Gallen vs FC Luzern
- 9 August 2026FC St. Gallen 2–2 FC LuzernSuper League
- 12 April 2026FC Luzern 2–2 FC St. GallenSuper League
- 1 February 2026FC Luzern 2–2 FC St. GallenSuper League
- 24 August 2025FC St. Gallen 0–1 FC LuzernSuper League
- 3 April 2025FC Luzern 1–1 FC St. GallenSuper League
- 2 February 2025FC Luzern 2–0 FC St. GallenSuper League
Leading scorers: FC St. Gallen and FC Luzern
FC St. Gallen
No player in Super League's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
FC Luzern
- A. Cigaņiks3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.