29 October 2026, 00:30 UTC

FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew Major League Soccer prediction & result

Toyota Stadium, Frisco
Referee: Sergii Demianchuk
Full time0 – 2

Final score: FC Dallas 0-2 Columbus Crew.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% FC Dallas, 25% draw, 30% Columbus Crew — fair odds of 2.22, 4.00 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Dallas at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Dallas0%Draw1%Columbus Crew99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

nolan norris
16'
18'
⚽Gonzalo Tapiaassist: Anass Zaroury
Shaquell Moore
31'
🔁Patrickson Delgadoout: Daniel Job
45'
🔁Ran Binyaminout: Herman Johansson
45'
58'
🔁Anass Zarouryout: André Gomes
•Shaquell Moore
60'
🔁Santiago Morenoout: Joaquín Valiente Cioli
65'
🔁Ramiroout: Kaick da Silva Ferreira
65'
70'
⚽Santiago Rodriguez
🔁nolan norrisout: Anderson Julio
76'
79'
🔁Santiago Rodriguezout: Marcelo Andrés Herrera
79'
🔁Gonzalo Tapiaout: Jamal Thiare
Christian Cappis
83'
Herman Johansson
87'
90'
🔁Taha Habrouneout: Tarun Karumanchi
90+6'
Marcelo Andrés Herrera

Match stats — FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew

52%Possession48%
16Shots9
5On target3
9Corners3
1.2xG1.54

Goals against chances

FC Dallas0 from 1.20 xGless than the chances were worth
Columbus Crew2 from 1.54 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Dallas 3-4-3
  • 42DanielG
  • 18S. MooreD
  • 3O. UrhoghideD
  • 32N. NorrisD
  • 6R. BinyaminM
  • 17RamiroM
  • 12C. CappisM
  • 77B. KamungoM
  • 8P. DelgadoF
  • 9P. MusaF
  • 10S. MorenoF
Substitutes
  • 25S. IbeaghaD
  • 5L. AbubakarD
  • 7D. JobM
  • 14H. JohanssonM
  • 11A. JulioF
  • 40J. SiroisG
  • 27Caleb SwannM
  • 21J. ValienteM
  • 55KaickM
Coach: Eric Quill
Columbus Crew 3-4-3
  • 28P. SchulteG
  • 31S. MoreiraD
  • 25S. ZawadzkiD
  • 18M. AmundsenD
  • 11B. LennonM
  • 7D. ChambostM
  • 16T. HabrouneM
  • 21A. ZarouryM
  • 23M. FarsiF
  • 33G. TapiaF
  • 8S. RodríguezF
Substitutes
  • 19J. ThiaréF
  • 39K. GbambleF
  • 26L. GiacconeM
  • 1N. HagenG
  • 2M. HerreraD
  • 50T. KarumanchiM
  • 77Josef MartínezF
  • 12Cesar RuvalcabaD
  • 20André GomesM
Coach: L. Courtois

Form going into FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew

FC Dallas

Major League Soccer

  • W3-0San Jose Earthquakes25 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Houston Dynamo18 October 2026

Columbus Crew

Major League Soccer

  • W4-2Toronto FC24 October 2026
  • W2-0away to FC Cincinnati18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2FC Dallas34161086251+1158
7Columbus Crew34145155952+747

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew

  • 24 September 2023FC Dallas 1–1 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
  • 4 October 2020FC Dallas 2–2 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
  • 16 March 2019Columbus Crew 1–0 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
  • 16 September 2018FC Dallas 0–0 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
  • 26 August 2017Columbus Crew 2–1 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
  • 3 April 2016FC Dallas 1–1 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: FC Dallas and Columbus Crew

FC Dallas

GoalsAssists

  • P. Musa225

Columbus Crew

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 59 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Columbus Crew won 2–0 at FC Dallas. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Dallas at 45% and given a win for Columbus Crew 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Gonzalo Tapia 18' for Columbus Crew, Santiago Rodriguez 70' for Columbus Crew. On expected goals it finished 1.20–1.54.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Dallas a 25.9% chance to finish top of the Western Conference: 39.7% after a win, 15.7% after a draw, 8.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.8%, 17.1 points lower than before the match.

For Columbus Crew the question was the chance to finish in the top nine, 50.4% going in: 79.5% after a win, 55.1% after a draw, 30.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 79.5%, 29.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.