29 October 2026, 00:30 UTC

Chicago Fire vs Orlando City SC Major League Soccer prediction & result

Soldier Field, Chicago
Referee: Marcos De Oliveira
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Chicago Fire 2-2 Orlando City SC.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Chicago Fire, 21% draw, 28% Orlando City SC — fair odds of 1.96, 4.76 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Chicago Fire at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Chicago Fire7%Draw88%Orlando City SC5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
⚽Iván Anguloassist: Antoine Griezmann
Sergio Oregel
30'
35'
⚽Antoine Griezmannassist: Vinicius Nogueira
Jack Elliott
45'
45+1'
•Justin Ellis
45+3'
Justin Ellis
🔁Sergio Oregelout: Jonathan Bamba
45'
⚽Jonathan Bambaassist: Leonardo Barroso
57'
⚽Maren Haile-Selassieassist: Jonathan Bamba
69'
76'
David Brekalo
76'
🔁Justin Ellisout: Daryl Dike
🔁Leonardo Barrosoout: Jonathan Dean
82'
🔁Andrew Gutmanout: Noah Allen
82'
83'
🔁Martin Ojedaout: Marco Pašalić
83'
🔁Vinicius Nogueiraout: Adrián Marín
🔁Philip Zinckernagelout: Puso Dithejane
90+1'
90+3'
🔁Braian Ojedaout: Wilder Cartagena

Match stats — Chicago Fire vs Orlando City SC

58%Possession42%
23Shots9
5On target5
8Corners3
2.42xG0.65

Goals against chances

Chicago Fire2 from 2.42 xGabout what the chances were worth
Orlando City SC2 from 0.65 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Chicago Fire 4-3-3
  • 1C. BradyG
  • 2Leonardo BarrosoD
  • 21A. Hanche-OlsenD
  • 3J. ElliottD
  • 15A. GutmanD
  • 35S. OregelM
  • 23A. MekvabishviliM
  • 6A. SalétrosM
  • 11P. ZinckernagelF
  • 9R. LewandowskiF
  • 7M. Haile-SelassieF
Substitutes
  • 32N. AllenD
  • 19J. BambaF
  • 44J. CohenG
  • 24J. DeanD
  • 12P. DithejaneF
  • 18J. GómezF
  • 22M. PinedaD
  • 29D. PorębaM
  • 10André FrancoM
Coach: G. Berhalter
Orlando City SC 4-4-2
  • 71M. CrépeauG
  • 19Z. TaifiD
  • 4D. BrekaloD
  • 57IagoD
  • 27Vinícius NogueiraD
  • 22Justin EllisM
  • 8B. OjedaM
  • 5Luis OtávioM
  • 77I. AnguloM
  • 7A. GriezmannF
  • 10M. OjedaF
Substitutes
  • 44Bernardo Rhein GoncalvesF
  • 87Marco PasalicF
  • 12Javier OteroG
  • 21N. MillerD
  • 3Adrián MarínD
  • 35Joran GerbetM
  • 9D. DikeF
  • 16W. CartagenaM
  • 11TiagoF
Coach: M. Perelman

Form going into Chicago Fire vs Orlando City SC

Chicago Fire

Major League Soccer

  • W3-2away to Atlanta United FC24 October 2026
  • L0-1away to New England Revolution17 October 2026

Orlando City SC

Major League Soccer

  • D2-2New York City FC24 October 2026
  • W4-1DC United17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Chicago Fire34167116454+1055
8Orlando City SC34137146378-1546

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Chicago Fire vs Orlando City SC

  • 19 August 2026Orlando City SC 1–2 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
  • 23 October 2025Chicago Fire 3–1 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
  • 31 May 2025Orlando City SC 1–3 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
  • 4 May 2025Chicago Fire 0–0 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
  • 22 June 2024Orlando City SC 4–2 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
  • 30 May 2024Chicago Fire 1–1 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Chicago Fire and Orlando City SC

Chicago Fire

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 64 league goals as a side.

Orlando City SC

GoalsAssists

  • M. Ojeda164
  • A. Griezmann147

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Chicago Fire and Orlando City SC drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Chicago Fire at 51% and given a draw 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Iván Angulo 6' for Orlando City SC, Antoine Griezmann 35' for Orlando City SC, Jonathan Bamba 57' for Chicago Fire, Maren Haile-Selassie 69' for Chicago Fire. On expected goals it finished 2.42–0.65.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Orlando City SC a 89.4% chance to finish in the top nine: 99.7% after a win, 95.1% after a draw, 83.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 95.1%, 5.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Chicago Fire v Orlando City SC has moved

First published on 15 Oct at 52% / 22% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 51% / 21% / 28%: the biggest move is Orlando City SC's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Chicago Fire win51%▼ −1
  2. Draw21%▼ −1
  3. Orlando City SC win28%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.