29 October 2026, 00:30 UTC

Austin vs Real Salt Lake Major League Soccer prediction & result

Q2 Stadium, Austin
Referee: Ricardo Montero Araya
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Austin 1-2 Real Salt Lake.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Austin, 27% draw, 35% Real Salt Lake — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Austin at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Austin0%Draw5%Real Salt Lake95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

35'
Morgan Guilavogui
⚽Jorge Alastuey
52'
55'
⚽Saba Lobjanidzeassist: Juan Sanabria
61'
⚽Morgan Guilavoguiassist: Sergi Solans
Damian Las
61'
🔁Joseph Rosalesout: Brendan Hines-Ike
64'
🔁Mikkel Deslerout: Przemyslaw Płacheta
64'
67'
🔁Dominik Marczukout: Chadwick Zachary Booth
🔁Besard Sabovicout: Christian Ramirez
70'
•Myrto Uzuni
74'
🔁Jon Gallagherout: Žan Kolmanič
76'
Jorge Alastuey
77'
79'
🔁Morgan Guilavoguiout: Ariath Piol
79'
🔁Sergi Solansout: DeAndre Yedlin
79'
🔁Philip Quintonout: Justen Glad
86'
🔁Saba Lobjanidzeout: Alexandros Katranis

Match stats — Austin vs Real Salt Lake

49%Possession51%
16Shots20
5On target4
8Corners7
0.92xG2.21

Goals against chances

Austin1 from 0.92 xGabout what the chances were worth
Real Salt Lake2 from 2.21 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Austin 3-4-3
  • 12D. LasG
  • 3M. DeslerD
  • 6Ilie SánchezD
  • 29Guilherme BiroD
  • 30J. RosalesM
  • 14B. ŠabovićM
  • 24Jorge AlastueyM
  • 17J. GallagherM
  • 10M. UzuniF
  • 9B. VázquezF
  • 11F. TorresF
Substitutes
  • 32M. BurtonM
  • 35M. ĐorđevićD
  • 4B. Hines-IkeD
  • 23Ž. KolmaničD
  • 77P. PłachetaM
  • 21C. RamirezF
  • 1B. StuverG
  • 5O. SvatokD
  • 2R. ThomasD
Coach: D. Arnaud
Real Salt Lake 3-4-3
  • 1Rafael CabralG
  • 44L. De FougerollesD
  • 26P. QuintonD
  • 3K. HenryD
  • 11D. MarczukM
  • 92N. CaliskanM
  • 6S. SpieringsM
  • 8J. SanabriaM
  • 12S. LobzhanidzeF
  • 22S. SolansF
  • 9M. GuilavoguiF
Substitutes
  • 2D. YedlinD
  • 31M. StajduharG
  • 19A. PiolF
  • 98A. KatránisD
  • 29S. JunquaD
  • 39A. HezarkhaniF
  • 25Colin GuskeM
  • 15J. GladD
  • 23Chadwick Zachary BoothM
Coach: P. Mastroeni

Form going into Austin vs Real Salt Lake

Austin

Major League Soccer

  • W2-1away to Sporting Kansas City25 October 2026
  • L1-2Vancouver Whitecaps18 October 2026

Real Salt Lake

Major League Soccer

  • W3-0St. Louis City25 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Sporting Kansas City18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Austin34810164265-2334
9Real Salt Lake34136155352+145

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Austin vs Real Salt Lake

  • 15 March 2026Real Salt Lake 2–1 AustinMajor League Soccer
  • 28 September 2025Real Salt Lake 3–1 AustinMajor League Soccer
  • 29 May 2025Austin 1–1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
  • 29 September 2024Austin 2–2 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
  • 2 June 2024Real Salt Lake 5–1 AustinMajor League Soccer
  • 4 June 2023Austin 1–2 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Austin and Real Salt Lake

Austin

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 42 league goals as a side.

Real Salt Lake

GoalsAssists

  • S. Solans154

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Real Salt Lake won 2–1 at Austin. The model had leaned towards a win for Austin at 38% and given a win for Real Salt Lake 35%. The goals: Jorge Alastuey 52' for Austin, Saba Lobjanidze 55' for Real Salt Lake, Morgan Guilavogui 61' for Real Salt Lake. On expected goals it finished 0.92–2.21.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Austin a 72.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 53.2% after a win, 81.0% after a draw, 90.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 90.0%, 17.1 points higher than before the match.

For Real Salt Lake the question was the chance to finish in the top nine, 52.7% going in: 75.8% after a win, 49.0% after a draw, 33.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 75.8%, 23.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Austin v Real Salt Lake has moved

First published on 15 Oct at 42% / 27% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 38% / 27% / 35%: the biggest move is Austin's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Austin win38%▼ −4
  2. Draw27%=
  3. Real Salt Lake win35%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.