29 October 2026, 00:30 UTC

Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union Major League Soccer prediction & result

Geodis Park, Nashville
Referee: Pierre Luce Lauziere
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Nashville SC 0-0 Philadelphia Union.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% Nashville SC, 24% draw, 22% Philadelphia Union — fair odds of 1.85, 4.17 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Nashville SC at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Nashville SC6%Draw91%Philadelphia Union3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Edvard Sandvik Tagseth
22'
40'
Jovan Lukic
🔁Edvard Sandvik Tagsethout: Bryan Acosta
45'
🔁Alex Muylout: Hany Mukhtar
58'
🔁Ahmed Qasimout: Sam Surridge
58'
59'
🔁Malik Jakupovicout: Benjamin Bender
69'
🔁Ezekiel Kwame Alladohout: Agustin Anello
69'
🔁Japhet Sery Larsenout: Francis Westfield
🔁Daniel Lovitzout: Andy Najar
72'
🔁Warren Madrigalout: Elias Saad
80'
86'
🔁Indiana Vassilevout: Alejandro Bedoya
90+2'
Danley Jean Jacques

Match stats — Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union

63%Possession37%
9Shots6
1On target2
2Corners8
0.96xG0.84

Goals against chances

Nashville SC0 from 0.96 xGless than the chances were worth
Philadelphia Union0 from 0.84 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Nashville SC 4-4-2
  • 99B. SchwakeG
  • 27R. Baker-WhitingD
  • 4J. PalaciosD
  • 3M. WoledziD
  • 2D. LovitzD
  • 7C. EspinozaM
  • 8P. YazbekM
  • 20E. TagsethM
  • 19A. MuylM
  • 41W. MadrigalF
  • 37A. QasemF
Substitutes
  • 1J. WillisG
  • 5J. MaherD
  • 6B. AcostaM
  • 22J. BauerD
  • 14S. MohammedM
  • 10H. MukhtarM
  • 31A. NajarD
  • 11E. SaadF
  • 9S. SurridgeF
Coach: B. Callaghan
Philadelphia Union 4-4-2
  • 18A. BlakeG
  • 26N. HarrielD
  • 44Neil PierreD
  • 5J. Sery LarsenD
  • 27K. WagnerD
  • 33Q. SullivanM
  • 21D. Jean-JacquesM
  • 4J. LukićM
  • 19I. VassilevM
  • 51M. JakupovicF
  • 23E. AlladohF
Substitutes
  • 28A. AnelloF
  • 11A. BedoyaM
  • 16B. BenderM
  • 47K. LeBlancM
  • 2G. MartínezD
  • 66F. SundstromD
  • 14J. RafanelloM
  • 76A. RickG
  • 39F. WestfieldD
Coach: Ryan Richter

Form going into Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union

Nashville SC

Major League Soccer

  • W2-0away to CF Montreal24 October 2026
  • D1-1away to San Jose Earthquakes18 October 2026

Philadelphia Union

Major League Soccer

  • L1-2New England Revolution24 October 2026
  • D2-2Charlotte17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Nashville SC3423837125+4677
6Philadelphia Union34148126652+1450

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union

  • 2 May 2026Philadelphia Union 0–0 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
  • 17 September 2025Nashville SC 3–1 Philadelphia UnionUS Open Cup
  • 6 July 2025Nashville SC 1–0 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
  • 16 March 2025Philadelphia Union 1–3 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
  • 20 July 2024Philadelphia Union 3–0 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
  • 7 April 2024Nashville SC 1–2 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Nashville SC and Philadelphia Union

Nashville SC

GoalsAssists

  • S. Surridge211
  • H. Mukhtar167

Philadelphia Union

GoalsAssists

  • M. Iloski192

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Nashville SC and Philadelphia Union drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Nashville SC at 54% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.96–0.84.

How the call on Nashville SC v Philadelphia Union has moved

First published on 15 Oct at 52% / 25% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 54% / 24% / 22%: the biggest move is Nashville SC's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Nashville SC win54%▲ +2
  2. Draw24%▼ −1
  3. Philadelphia Union win22%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.