Minnesota United FC vs Sporting Kansas City Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Minnesota United FC 3-1 Sporting Kansas City.
Before kick-off the model made it 60% Minnesota United FC, 20% draw, 20% Sporting Kansas City — fair odds of 1.67, 5.00 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Minnesota United FC at 60%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Minnesota United FC vs Sporting Kansas City
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12D. CallenderG
- 52Cherrion ValeriusD
- 28J. DíazD
- 23M. DugganD
- 13A. MarkanichD
- 21B. HlongwaneM
- 25N. TriantisM
- 30O. GeneM
- 18M. GonzalezM
- 16A. JacksonF
- 9K. YeboahF
- 8T. ChancalayF
- 22Marcus CaldeiraF
- 15M. BoxallD
- 3K. DuncanD
- 67C. HarveyM
- 11M. MaloneF
- 26J. PereyraM
- 5N. RomeroD
- 1A. SmirG
- 30S. ClevelandG
- 8J. DavisD
- 15Jansen MillerD
- 28Wyatt MeyerD
- 18E. KarićD
- 11André LuizM
- 16J. BartlettM
- 20K. AgyabengM
- 7CapitaM
- 19T. CalheiraF
- 17S. AfrifaF
- 93M. SuleymanovF
- 99J. ReidD
- 24R. RamosF
- 1J. PulskampG
- 2I. JamesD
- 14C. HarrisF
- 23E. BartlowD
- 33O. WolffM
Form going into Minnesota United FC vs Sporting Kansas City
Minnesota United FC
Major League Soccer
- D0-0away to Houston Dynamo25 October 2026
- W3-2St. Louis City17 October 2026
Sporting Kansas City
Major League Soccer
- L1-2Austin25 October 2026
- L1-3Real Salt Lake18 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Minnesota United FC | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 56 | 58 | -2 | 44 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 34 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 40 | 81 | -41 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Minnesota United FC vs Sporting Kansas City
- 23 July 2026Sporting Kansas City 2–1 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 7 February 2026Sporting Kansas City 0–3 Minnesota United FCFriendlies Clubs
- 5 October 2025Minnesota United FC 3–0 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
- 16 March 2025Sporting Kansas City 3–3 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 22 September 2024Sporting Kansas City 0–2 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 2 June 2024Minnesota United FC 3–1 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Minnesota United FC and Sporting Kansas City
Minnesota United FC
GoalsAssists
- K. Yeboah184
Sporting Kansas City
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 40 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Minnesota United FC beat Sporting Kansas City 3–1. The model had made a win for Minnesota United FC its most likely outcome, at 60%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Taylor Calheira 31' for Sporting Kansas City, Anthony Markanich 72' for Minnesota United FC, Mauricio González Carabalí 76' for Minnesota United FC, Kelvin Yeboah 88' for Minnesota United FC. On expected goals it finished 1.86–0.78.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Minnesota United FC a 41.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 27.7% after a win, 58.2% after a draw, 74.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 27.7%, 13.4 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Minnesota United FC v Sporting Kansas City has moved
First published on 15 Oct at 56% / 21% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 60% / 20% / 20%: the biggest move is Minnesota United FC's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Minnesota United FC win60%▲ +4
- Draw20%▼ −1
- Sporting Kansas City win20%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.