Regular Season - 15 · 29 November 2026, 18:30 UTC

FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg 3. Liga prediction

Audi Sportpark, Ingolstadt

Our model says: FC Ingolstadt 04 1–0 SSV Jahn Regensburg

The model makes it 45% FC Ingolstadt 04, 27% draw, 28% SSV Jahn Regensburg — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: FC Ingolstadt 04 1.59, SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.14.

Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. FC Ingolstadt 04's rating is built from 51 3. Liga matches and SSV Jahn Regensburg's from 51, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • FC Ingolstadt 04 are 5th on 21 points from 13 games; SSV Jahn Regensburg are 16th on 13 points from 13 games — 3. Liga.
  • FC Ingolstadt 04 are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 3-2 win at home to Fortuna Düsseldorf.
  • SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to SV Meppen.
  • Last 6 meetings: SSV Jahn Regensburg 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 16 January 2026, ended SSV Jahn Regensburg 0–3 FC Ingolstadt 04.

More 3. Liga predictions

All 3. Liga predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg

55%
Both teams to score
51%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

FC Ingolstadt 04 win Draw SSV Jahn Regensburg win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 1–010%
  3. 2–19%
  4. 2–08%
  5. 0–07%
  6. 0–17%
  7. 1–27%

Scores read FC Ingolstadt 04 first; the other scorelines share the remaining 40%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

FC Ingolstadt 04 at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg

FC Ingolstadt 04

3. Liga

  • W3-2Fortuna Düsseldorf7 November 2026
  • D1-1away to Havelse31 October 2026
  • W2-1MSV Duisburg24 October 2026
  • W1-0Rot-Weiß Essen17 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Waldhof Mannheim14 October 2026

SSV Jahn Regensburg

3. Liga

  • L1-2away to SV Meppen8 November 2026
  • W2-1Hansa Rostock31 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Rot-Weiß Essen23 October 2026
  • D0-0SV Wehen17 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Verl14 October 2026

What these results say

  • FC Ingolstadt 04 went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • FC Ingolstadt 04 scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • FC Ingolstadt 04 won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • SSV Jahn Regensburg failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • SSV Jahn Regensburg conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

3. Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5FC Ingolstadt 04136341919021
16SSV Jahn Regensburg133462323013

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg

  • 16 January 2026SSV Jahn Regensburg 0–3 FC Ingolstadt 043. Liga
  • 2 August 2025FC Ingolstadt 04 1–1 SSV Jahn Regensburg3. Liga
  • 9 March 2024Jahn Regensburg 1–1 FC Ingolstadt 043. Liga
  • 8 October 2023FC Ingolstadt 04 2–4 Jahn Regensburg3. Liga
  • 8 April 2022Jahn Regensburg 1–1 FC Ingolstadt 042. Bundesliga
  • 31 October 2021FC Ingolstadt 04 0–3 Jahn Regensburg2. Bundesliga

Leading scorers: FC Ingolstadt 04 and SSV Jahn Regensburg

FC Ingolstadt 04

GoalsAssists

  • O. Ugondu40

SSV Jahn Regensburg

GoalsAssists

  • L. Hermes62
  • N. Boujellab34

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Ingolstadt 04 a 1.3% chance of the title and SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

FC Ingolstadt 04 SSV Jahn Regensburg
0.54 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.55
1.72 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.81
1.59 Model expected goals (this match) 1.14

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives FC Ingolstadt 04 the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for FC Ingolstadt 04 against 1.14 for SSV Jahn Regensburg. FC Ingolstadt 04's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.72 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.81 for SSV Jahn Regensburg.

FC Ingolstadt 04 carry a model rating of 6.27 against 6.25 for SSV Jahn Regensburg. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 45% for FC Ingolstadt 04 to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FC Ingolstadt 04 to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, FC Ingolstadt 04's ratings change nothing and SSV Jahn Regensburg's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 45%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. FC Ingolstadt 04's ratings44%±0
  4. SSV Jahn Regensburg's ratings45%+1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

FC Ingolstadt 04SSV Jahn Regensburg
13Matches13
6W 3D 4LRecord3W 4D 6L
19 1.5 per gameGoals scored23 1.8 per game
19 1.5 per gameGoals conceded23 1.8 per game
4 of 13Clean sheets2 of 13
2 of 13Failed to score3 of 13
–Penalties scored2 of 3
26 2.0 per gameYellow cards38 2.9 per game
3Red cards1
3-4-3 4×Usual shape3-4-3 3×

FC Ingolstadt 04 at home · SSV Jahn Regensburg away

7Played7
3W 1D 3LRecord1W 3D 3L
11–14Goals for – against14–17
1 of 7Clean sheets0 of 7

League matches only, 3. Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All 3. Liga matches this season: FC Ingolstadt 04 13, SSV Jahn Regensburg 13.

FC Ingolstadt 04 scored 243323
SSV Jahn Regensburg conceded 442175

FC Ingolstadt 04 score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); SSV Jahn Regensburg have let in 4 there.

SSV Jahn Regensburg scored 137831
FC Ingolstadt 04 conceded 632325

SSV Jahn Regensburg score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); FC Ingolstadt 04 have let in 3 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

FC Ingolstadt 04

  • at Verl5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 31%
  • vs Fortuna Köln12 Dec · 3. Ligawin 51%
  • at SV Meppen19 Dec · 3. Ligawin 29%
  • vs Hansa Rostock16 Jan · 3. Ligawin 42%

SSV Jahn Regensburg

  • vs Preußen Münster5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 51%
  • at Waldhof Mannheim12 Dec · 3. Ligawin 32%
  • vs Fortuna Köln19 Dec · 3. Ligawin 51%
  • at SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach16 Jan · 3. Ligawin 45%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.