FC Viktoria Köln
vs
Fortuna Köln
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: FC Viktoria Köln 1–0 Fortuna Köln
The model makes it 60% FC Viktoria Köln, 25% draw, 15% Fortuna Köln — fair odds of 1.67, 4.00 and 6.67.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: FC Viktoria Köln 1.80, Fortuna Köln 0.63.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: FC Viktoria Köln are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. FC Viktoria Köln's rating is built from 51 3. Liga matches and Fortuna Köln's from 13, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- FC Viktoria Köln are top on 29 points from 13 games; Fortuna Köln are 19th on 10 points from 13 games — 3. Liga.
- FC Viktoria Köln are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 5-3 win at home to FC Saarbrücken.
- Fortuna Köln have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Waldhof Mannheim.
More 3. Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Viktoria Köln vs Fortuna Köln
Has the model earned this number?
FC Viktoria Köln at 60%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Viktoria Köln vs Fortuna Köln
FC Viktoria Köln
3. Liga
- W5-3FC Saarbrücken6 November 2026
- W1-0away to Hoffenheim II31 October 2026
- W3-1Verl24 October 2026
- D1-1away to MSV Duisburg18 October 2026
- D2-2SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach14 October 2026
Fortuna Köln
3. Liga
- L1-2away to Waldhof Mannheim7 November 2026
- L1-2Würzburger Kickers31 October 2026
- L0-1away to Preußen Münster25 October 2026
- L0-1Stuttgart II16 October 2026
- L0-2away to Rot-Weiß Essen13 October 2026
What these results say
- FC Viktoria Köln went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- FC Viktoria Köln scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Viktoria Köln conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fortuna Köln did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Fortuna Köln conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Viktoria Köln | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 36 | 18 | +18 | 29 |
| 19 | Fortuna Köln | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FC Viktoria Köln
Chance to finish in the top three · 76% today
Fortuna Köln
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 76% today
From our 3. Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Leading scorers: FC Viktoria Köln and Fortuna Köln
FC Viktoria Köln
GoalsAssists
- D. Otto55
- N. Castelle52
Fortuna Köln
No player in 3. Liga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Viktoria Köln a 33.9% chance of the title and Fortuna Köln 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Viktoria Köln the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.80 expected goals for FC Viktoria Köln against 0.63 for Fortuna Köln. FC Viktoria Köln's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.63 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.32/1.6 for Fortuna Köln.
How the model reaches 60% for FC Viktoria Köln to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FC Viktoria Köln to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, FC Viktoria Köln's ratings add 13 points and Fortuna Köln's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 60%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level41%−3
- FC Viktoria Köln's ratings54%+13
- Fortuna Köln's ratings60%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
FC Viktoria Köln at home · Fortuna Köln away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: FC Viktoria Köln 13, Fortuna Köln 13.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
FC Viktoria Köln
- at Würzburger Kickers5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 47%
- vs Fortuna Düsseldorf12 Dec · 3. Ligawin 56%
- vs Waldhof Mannheim19 Dec · 3. Ligawin 59%
- at SV Wehen16 Jan · 3. Ligawin 31%
Fortuna Köln
- vs Hansa Rostock5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 29%
- at FC Ingolstadt 0412 Dec · 3. Ligawin 19%
- at SSV Jahn Regensburg19 Dec · 3. Ligawin 20%
- vs MSV Duisburg16 Jan · 3. Ligawin 25%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.