Regular Season - 12 · 29 November 2026, 15:30 UTC

Penafiel vs Benfica B Segunda Liga prediction

Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril, Penafiel

Our model says: Penafiel 2–1 Benfica B

The model makes it 44% Penafiel, 26% draw, 30% Benfica B — fair odds of 2.27, 3.85 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Penafiel 1.77, Benfica B 1.36.

Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Penafiel's rating is built from 44 Liga Portugal 2 matches and Benfica B's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Penafiel are top on 22 points from 10 games; Benfica B are 3rd on 20 points from 10 games — Segunda Liga.
  • Penafiel are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-2 win away to Chaves.
  • Benfica B are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 3-2 win away to Farense.
  • Last 6 meetings: Benfica B 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 1 March 2026, ended Penafiel 1–1 Benfica B.

More Liga Portugal 2 predictions

All Liga Portugal 2 predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Penafiel vs Benfica B

62%
Both teams to score
60%
Over 2.5 goals
40%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Penafiel win Draw Benfica B win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 1–07%
  4. 1–27%
  5. 2–07%
  6. 2–26%
  7. 3–15%

Scores read Penafiel first; the other scorelines share the remaining 47%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Penafiel at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Penafiel vs Benfica B

Penafiel

Segunda Liga

  • W3-2away to Chaves7 November 2026
  • W1-0Feirense2 November 2026
  • W4-1away to Farense24 October 2026
  • L1-2AVS9 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Felgueiras 193212 September 2026

Benfica B

Segunda Liga

  • W3-2away to Farense8 November 2026
  • W3-1Chaves31 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Feirense24 October 2026
  • W1-0Felgueiras 193212 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Academica11 September 2026

What these results say

  • Penafiel scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Penafiel won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Penafiel conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Benfica B went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Benfica B won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Benfica B scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Penafiel107122210+1222
3Benfica B10622148+620

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Penafiel vs Benfica B

  • 1 March 2026Penafiel 1–1 Benfica BSegunda Liga
  • 5 October 2025Benfica B 0–2 PenafielSegunda Liga
  • 11 May 2025Benfica B 1–1 PenafielSegunda Liga
  • 29 December 2024Penafiel 1–1 Benfica BSegunda Liga
  • 16 March 2024Penafiel 0–1 Benfica BSegunda Liga
  • 4 November 2023Benfica B 1–0 PenafielSegunda Liga

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Penafiel a 35.3% chance of the title and Benfica B 24.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Penafiel Benfica B
0.85 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.76
1.48 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.28
1.77 Model expected goals (this match) 1.36

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Penafiel the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Penafiel against 1.36 for Benfica B. Penafiel's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.28 for Benfica B.

Penafiel carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.59 for Benfica B. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 44% for Penafiel to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Penafiel to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Penafiel's ratings add 1 point and Benfica B's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 44%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level45%+1
  4. Penafiel's ratings46%+1
  5. Benfica B's ratings44%−2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

PenafielBenfica B
10Matches10
7W 1D 2LRecord6W 2D 2L
22 2.2 per gameGoals scored14 1.4 per game
10 1.0 per gameGoals conceded8 0.8 per game
3 of 10Clean sheets4 of 10
1 of 10Failed to score3 of 10
1 of 1Penalties scored2 of 2
24 2.4 per gameYellow cards24 2.4 per game
2Red cards0
3-4-3 8×Usual shape4-3-3 7×

Penafiel at home · Benfica B away

5Played5
3W 0D 2LRecord3W 1D 1L
8–4Goals for – against8–4
2 of 5Clean sheets2 of 5

League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Segunda Liga matches this season: Penafiel 10, Benfica B 10.

Penafiel scored 634325
Benfica B conceded 312110

Penafiel score most often in the 0–15 minute window (6 goals); Benfica B have let in 3 there.

Benfica B scored 232113
Penafiel conceded 101223

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Penafiel

  • at Tondela5 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 35%
  • vs Leixoes12 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 62%
  • at Vizela20 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 39%
  • vs Amarante27 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 59%

Benfica B

  • vs AVS2 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 53%
  • vs Lusitânia Lourosa6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 54%
  • vs Vizela14 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 55%
  • at Tondela20 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 35%
  • vs Sporting CP B27 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 46%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.