Würzburger Kickers
vs
Fortuna Düsseldorf
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: Würzburger Kickers 1–0 Fortuna Düsseldorf
The model makes it 37% Würzburger Kickers, 30% draw, 33% Fortuna Düsseldorf — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Würzburger Kickers 1.22, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.10.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Würzburger Kickers's rating is built from 13 3. Liga matches and Fortuna Düsseldorf's from 13, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Würzburger Kickers are 15th on 14 points from 13 games; Fortuna Düsseldorf are 13th on 16 points from 13 games — 3. Liga.
- Würzburger Kickers have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Hoffenheim II.
- Fortuna Düsseldorf are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to FC Ingolstadt 04.
- Last 5 meetings: Fortuna Düsseldorf 3 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 29 January 2021, ended FC Wurzburger Kickers 2–1 Fortuna Dusseldorf.
More 3. Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Würzburger Kickers vs Fortuna Düsseldorf
Has the model earned this number?
Würzburger Kickers at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Würzburger Kickers vs Fortuna Düsseldorf
Würzburger Kickers
3. Liga
- L0-1Hoffenheim II8 November 2026
- W2-1away to Fortuna Köln31 October 2026
- L0-4away to SV Meppen24 October 2026
- W2-0Waldhof Mannheim17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Havelse13 October 2026
Fortuna Düsseldorf
3. Liga
- L2-3away to FC Ingolstadt 047 November 2026
- D0-0SV Meppen30 October 2026
- D1-1away to Hansa Rostock24 October 2026
- L1-3FC Saarbrücken17 October 2026
- W2-1away to Preußen Münster14 October 2026
What these results say
- Würzburger Kickers conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fortuna Düsseldorf failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fortuna Düsseldorf scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fortuna Düsseldorf conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Würzburger Kickers | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 14 |
| 13 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Würzburger Kickers
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 46% today
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 12% today
From our 3. Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Würzburger Kickers vs Fortuna Düsseldorf
- 29 January 2021FC Wurzburger Kickers 2–1 Fortuna Dusseldorf2. Bundesliga
- 26 September 2020Fortuna Dusseldorf 1–0 FC Wurzburger Kickers2. Bundesliga
- 6 May 2017Fortuna Dusseldorf 1–1 FC Wurzburger Kickers2. Bundesliga
- 4 December 2016FC Wurzburger Kickers 0–0 Fortuna Dusseldorf2. Bundesliga
- 17 August 2014FC Wurzburger Kickers 3–2 Fortuna DusseldorfDFB Pokal
Leading scorers: Würzburger Kickers and Fortuna Düsseldorf
Würzburger Kickers
GoalsAssists
- T. Bonga41
Fortuna Düsseldorf
No player in 3. Liga's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Fortuna Düsseldorf (13th, with Würzburger Kickers 15th), while our numbers lean to Würzburger Kickers. Würzburger Kickers rate 0.46 in attack and 2.13 in defence, Fortuna Düsseldorf 0.43 and 1.63 (lower is better in defence), so Würzburger Kickers have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 2-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Würzburger Kickers a 0% chance of the title and Fortuna Düsseldorf 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Würzburger Kickers the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Würzburger Kickers against 1.10 for Fortuna Düsseldorf. Würzburger Kickers's attack/defence rating is 0.46/2.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/1.63 for Fortuna Düsseldorf.
How the model reaches 37% for Würzburger Kickers to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Würzburger Kickers to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Würzburger Kickers's ratings take away 2 points and Fortuna Düsseldorf's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level42%−2
- Würzburger Kickers's ratings40%−2
- Fortuna Düsseldorf's ratings37%−3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Würzburger Kickers at home · Fortuna Düsseldorf away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: Würzburger Kickers 13, Fortuna Düsseldorf 13.
Würzburger Kickers score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Fortuna Düsseldorf have let in 3 there.
Fortuna Düsseldorf score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Würzburger Kickers have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Würzburger Kickers
- vs FC Viktoria Köln5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 27%
- at FC Saarbrücken12 Dec · 3. Ligawin 21%
- vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach19 Dec · 3. Ligawin 52%
- at Preußen Münster16 Jan · 3. Ligawin 26%
Fortuna Düsseldorf
- vs SV Wehen5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 34%
- at FC Viktoria Köln12 Dec · 3. Ligawin 19%
- vs Rot-Weiß Essen19 Dec · 3. Ligawin 34%
- at Havelse16 Jan · 3. Ligawin 36%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.