3. Liga predictions & fixtures

Friday 20 November — 1 match

18:00 UTC Havelse vs FC Viktoria Köln — model 24% / 24% / 52%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 4.17 · 4.17 · 1.92. One-sided: FC Viktoria Köln

Saturday 21 November — 6 matches

13:00 UTC Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach — model 55% / 26% / 19%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.82 · 3.85 · 5.26. Edge: Fortuna Düsseldorf
13:00 UTC SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Würzburger Kickers — model 54% / 25% / 21%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.85 · 4.00 · 4.76. Edge: SSV Jahn Regensburg
13:00 UTC Fortuna Köln vs SV Meppen — model 31% / 35% / 34%, most likely 0-0, fair odds 3.23 · 2.86 · 2.94. Tight game · draw in reach
13:00 UTC Verl vs Rot-Weiß Essen — model 37% / 28% / 35%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.70 · 3.57 · 2.86. Tight game · draw in reach
13:00 UTC Hoffenheim II vs Preußen Münster — model 49% / 25% / 26%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.04 · 4.00 · 3.85. Evenly matched
15:30 UTC Alemannia Aachen vs Waldhof Mannheim — model 53% / 25% / 22%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.89 · 4.00 · 4.55. Edge: Alemannia Aachen

Sunday 22 November — 3 matches

12:30 UTC Stuttgart II vs FC Ingolstadt 04 — model 41% / 27% / 32%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.44 · 3.70 · 3.13. Evenly matched
15:30 UTC FC Saarbrücken vs SV Wehen — model 39% / 26% / 35%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.56 · 3.85 · 2.86. Evenly matched
18:30 UTC MSV Duisburg vs Hansa Rostock — model 51% / 25% / 24%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.96 · 4.00 · 4.17. Evenly matched

Friday 27 November — 1 match

18:00 UTC Hansa Rostock vs Havelse — model 64% / 20% / 16%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.56 · 5.00 · 6.25. Edge: Hansa Rostock

Saturday 28 November — 6 matches

13:00 UTC Würzburger Kickers vs Fortuna Düsseldorf — model 37% / 30% / 33%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.70 · 3.33 · 3.03. Evenly matched
13:00 UTC Preußen Münster vs Verl — model 41% / 26% / 33%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.44 · 3.85 · 3.03. Evenly matched
13:00 UTC Rot-Weiß Essen vs Hoffenheim II — model 53% / 25% / 22%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.89 · 4.00 · 4.55. Edge: Rot-Weiß Essen
13:00 UTC FC Saarbrücken vs Alemannia Aachen — model 41% / 26% / 33%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.44 · 3.85 · 3.03. Evenly matched
13:00 UTC Waldhof Mannheim vs Stuttgart II — model 45% / 25% / 30%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.22 · 4.00 · 3.33. Evenly matched
15:30 UTC SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs MSV Duisburg — model 21% / 24% / 55%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 4.76 · 4.17 · 1.82. One-sided: MSV Duisburg

Sunday 29 November — 3 matches

12:30 UTC FC Viktoria Köln vs Fortuna Köln — model 60% / 25% / 15%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.67 · 4.00 · 6.67. One-sided: FC Viktoria Köln
15:30 UTC SV Wehen vs SV Meppen — model 49% / 28% / 23%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.04 · 3.57 · 4.35. Evenly matched
18:30 UTC FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg — model 45% / 27% / 28%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.22 · 3.70 · 3.57. Evenly matched

Last round: the model's hits and misses

6–8 November: the model called the result of 9 of 10 matches, 1 of them to the exact score. Across all 60 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 47% of results.

FC Viktoria Köln 5–3 FC Saarbrücken — the model said 54% / 24% / 22%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
Hansa Rostock 3–0 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach — the model said 63% / 21% / 16%, most likely 2-0: result correct.
FC Ingolstadt 04 3–2 Fortuna Düsseldorf — the model said 44% / 31% / 25%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
Waldhof Mannheim 2–1 Fortuna Köln — the model said 47% / 31% / 22%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
Rot-Weiß Essen 1–0 Alemannia Aachen — the model said 44% / 27% / 29%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
SV Wehen 3–0 Havelse — the model said 63% / 21% / 16%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
Preußen Münster 1–2 MSV Duisburg — the model said 32% / 25% / 43%, most likely 1-2: exact scoreline.
SV Meppen 2–1 SSV Jahn Regensburg — the model said 40% / 30% / 30%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
Stuttgart II 1–0 Verl — the model said 44% / 25% / 31%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
Würzburger Kickers 0–1 Hoffenheim II — the model said 41% / 26% / 33%, most likely 2-1: result missed.

3. Liga so far

Top of the table

1. FC Viktoria Köln — 29 pts from 13 (9W 2D 2L, goals 36–18)
2. MSV Duisburg — 29 pts from 13 (9W 2D 2L, goals 33–18)
3. Rot-Weiß Essen — 27 pts from 13 (8W 3D 2L, goals 21–13)
4. SV Wehen — 21 pts from 13 (6W 3D 4L, goals 26–17)
5. FC Ingolstadt 04 — 21 pts from 13 (6W 3D 4L, goals 19–19)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 250 matches left: MSV Duisburg 41.1%, FC Viktoria Köln 33.9%, Rot-Weiß Essen 9.8%.

Leading scorers: Y. B. Zor Muhammed (Hoffenheim II) 8 goals, L. Hermes (SSV Jahn Regensburg) 6 goals, D. Otto (FC Viktoria Köln) 5 goals.