FC Porto vs Benfica Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: FC Porto 3-1 Benfica.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% FC Porto, 26% draw, 39% Benfica — fair odds of 2.86, 3.85 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Primeira Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Benfica at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Porto vs Benfica
Line-ups
- 99Diogo CostaG
- 20Alberto BaioD
- 5J. BednarekD
- 4J. KiwiorD
- 52Martim FernandesD
- 8Victor Mow FroholdtM
- 13P. RosarioM
- 10Gabri VeigaM
- 7WilliamF
- 19André SilvaF
- 11Pepê AquinoF
- 37Gabriel MecF
- 64Luís GomesD
- 29S. GiménezF
- 16Hwang In-BeomM
- 9SamuF
- 77O. PietuszewskiF
- 14Cláudio RamosG
- 21D. PrpićD
- 17Borja SainzF
- 24Samuel SoaresG
- 6A. BahD
- 44Tomás AraújoD
- 2C. LengletD
- 26S. DahlD
- 8F. AursnesM
- 36João PalhinhaM
- 27RafaM
- 10H. SudakovM
- 25G. PrestianniM
- 14V. PavlidisF
- 3A. CircatiD
- 22J. DuránF
- 30C. EcheverriM
- 34S. El KarouaniD
- 72A. CabralF
- 58Daniel BanjaquiD
- 13J. KamińskiF
- 11D. LukebakioF
- 21A. SchjelderupF
Form going into FC Porto vs Benfica
FC Porto
All competitions we cover
- W4-1away to Casa Pia12 September 2026
- L0-2Manchester City8 September 2026
- W2-1Moreirense4 September 2026
- W3-0away to Academico Viseu29 August 2026
- W2-0Arouca23 August 2026
Benfica
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to AC Milan16 September 2026
- W3-1GIL Vicente13 September 2026
- W4-0away to Moreirense9 September 2026
- W3-0away to Maritimo5 September 2026
- W2-1Estoril31 August 2026
What these results say
- FC Porto won 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Porto scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Benfica won every one of these 5 matches.
- Benfica scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Benfica had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 5 | +22 | 33 |
| 2 | Benfica | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 10 | +20 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Porto vs Benfica
- 8 March 2026Benfica 2–2 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
- 14 January 2026FC Porto 1–0 BenficaTaça de Portugal
- 5 October 2025FC Porto 0–0 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- 6 April 2025FC Porto 1–4 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- 10 November 2024Benfica 4–1 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: FC Porto and Benfica
FC Porto
GoalsAssists
- Borja Sainz61
- Gabri Veiga54
- André Silva42
Benfica
GoalsAssists
- V. Pavlidis113
- G. Prestianni74
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FC Porto beat Benfica 3–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Benfica at 39% and given a win for FC Porto 35%. The goals: Gabri Veiga 31' for FC Porto, Alexander Bah 51' for Benfica, Victor Froholdt 54' for FC Porto, Hwang In-Beom 60' for FC Porto. Sent off: Clément Lenglet (Benfica) 35'.
How the call on FC Porto v Benfica has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 33% / 27% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 35% / 26% / 39%: the biggest move is FC Porto's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- FC Porto win35%▲ +2
- Draw26%▼ −1
- Benfica win39%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.