Vitória SC vs Moreirense Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Vitória SC 1-1 Moreirense.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Vitória SC, 29% draw, 23% Moreirense — fair odds of 2.08, 3.45 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Primeira Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Vitória SC at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Vitória SC vs Moreirense
Line-ups
- 48O. ZychG
- 23T. StrataD
- 21T. BorevkovićD
- 28Thiago BalieiroD
- 13João MendesD
- 8Gonçalo NogueiraM
- 44L. DoucetM
- 11GustavoM
- 10AlanM
- 7O. CamaraM
- 9A. JakupovicF
- 22J. CastilloG
- 19V. AnderssonM
- 82F. DiasD
- 2Miguel MagaD
- 6M. MitrovićM
- 16BeniM
- 17Miguel NogueiraM
- 29V. OuotroF
- 4Óscar RivasD
- 13André FerreiraG
- 76Dinis PintoD
- 66Gilberto BatistaD
- 26MaracásD
- 27KikoD
- 23N. JohnM
- 65Guilherme LiberatoM
- 10Kiko BondosoM
- 7Manuel Ascenção Bebiano MendonçaM
- 19Tiago AndradeM
- 79L. VonićF
- 9A. Duville-ParsemainF
- 99MaranhãoF
- 8M. StjepanovićM
- 28Chipyoka SongaF
- 2Leandro Henrique Sousa SantosD
- 21Rodri AlonsoM
- 17Álvaro MartínezD
- 11LandersonF
- 4Kevyn MonteiroD
Form going into Vitória SC vs Moreirense
Vitória SC
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Academico Viseu12 September 2026
- D0-0Casa Pia6 September 2026
- L0-1away to SC Braga31 August 2026
Moreirense
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Maritimo14 September 2026
- L0-4Benfica9 September 2026
- L1-2away to FC Porto4 September 2026
- W1-0away to Casa Pia30 August 2026
- L0-4away to Arouca16 August 2026
What these results say
- Moreirense conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Moreirense had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Vitória SC | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 9 |
| 9 | Moreirense | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Vitória SC vs Moreirense
- 30 January 2026Vitória SC 1–0 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 23 August 2025Moreirense 2–0 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
- 30 March 2025Moreirense 2–2 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
- 3 November 2024Vitória SC 1–0 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 30 March 2024Vitória SC 1–0 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Vitória SC and Moreirense
Vitória SC
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Moreirense
GoalsAssists
- N. John30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Vitória SC and Moreirense drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Vitória SC at 48% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Tiago Andrade 52' for Moreirense, Toni Borevković 90+6' for Vitória SC.
How the call on Vitória SC v Moreirense has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 51% / 27% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 48% / 29% / 23%: the biggest move is Vitória SC's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Vitória SC win48%▼ −3
- Draw29%▲ +2
- Moreirense win23%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.