Estoril vs Casa Pia Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Estoril 1-2 Casa Pia.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Estoril, 31% draw, 30% Casa Pia — fair odds of 2.56, 3.23 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Primeira Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Estoril at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Estoril vs Casa Pia
Line-ups
- 1Joel RoblesG
- 2Ricard SánchezD
- 6Xavi SintesD
- 15Isma SierraD
- 21R. JurišićD
- 10J. HolsgroveM
- 44M. RobinM
- 11N. OmerovićM
- 12João CarvalhoM
- 9A. CamblanM
- 14Y. BegraouiF
- 90Tiago BritoM
- 35S. AmissahD
- 7André LacximicantF
- 99R. GuitaneM
- 3Fernando MedranoD
- 19Tiago Parreira ParenteD
- 17PeixinhoF
- 22Pedro CarvalhoD
- 42J. ArnolinD
- 95Ivan MandićG
- 18GeraldesD
- 3KalyD
- 43David SousaD
- 75Pedro RosasD
- 16SilviM
- 80L. OforiM
- 11M. El BoukammiriM
- 70João Pedro Seno Luís RêgoM
- 98JPM
- 9Henrique AraújoF
- 24S. PérezM
- 19K. PrietoF
- 77B. PauwelsF
- 17E. MaurinF
- 20A. JattaF
- 4João GoulartD
- 44Felipe SilvaD
- 8Gabi PereiraM
- 90CassianoF
Form going into Estoril vs Casa Pia
Estoril
Primeira Liga
- L0-1away to SC Braga14 September 2026
Casa Pia
All competitions we cover
- L1-4FC Porto12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Vitória SC6 September 2026
- L0-1Moreirense30 August 2026
- L0-2away to GIL Vicente24 August 2026
- L0-7Benfica17 August 2026
What these results say
- Casa Pia did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Casa Pia failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Casa Pia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Estoril | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 19 | -14 | 2 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Estoril vs Casa Pia
- 7 March 2026Estoril 0–0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
- 3 October 2025Casa Pia 2–2 EstorilPrimeira Liga
- 29 April 2025Casa Pia 1–3 EstorilPrimeira Liga
- 15 December 2024Estoril 0–2 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
- 8 April 2024Casa Pia 0–0 EstorilPrimeira Liga
The result against the call
Casa Pia won 2–1 at Estoril. The model had leaned towards a win for Estoril at 39% and given a win for Casa Pia 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Ricard Sanchez Sendra 70' for Estoril, Selvi Clua 72' for Casa Pia, Benjamin Pauwels 89' for Casa Pia.
How the call on Estoril v Casa Pia has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 41% / 30% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 11 updates, it read 39% / 31% / 30%: the biggest move is Estoril's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Estoril win39%▼ −2
- Draw31%▲ +1
- Casa Pia win30%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.