17 October 2026, 10:00 UTC

Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets Premier League prediction & result

Slavutych-Arena, Zaporizhzhia
Referee: Oleksandr Shandor, Ukraine
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Zorya Luhansk 2-1 Chornomorets.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% Zorya Luhansk, 26% draw, 21% Chornomorets — fair odds of 1.89, 3.85 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Zorya Luhansk at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Zorya Luhansk97%Draw3%Chornomorets0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Maksym Boyko
27'
45+3'
⚽Christian Mbaassist: Vitaliy Faraseyenko
45'
🔁Vitaliy Faraseyenkoout: Danyil Alefirenko
Igor Perduta
48'
🔁Kyrylo Dryshlyukout: Dejan Popara
57'
🔁sallieu bahout: Vladlen Yurchenko
57'
Dejan Popara
60'
🔁Domagoj jelavicout: Anton Glushchenko
71'
73'
🔁Kiril·Popovout: Andriy Khoma
Pylyp Budkivskyi
74'
77'
🔁Artur Avagimyanout: Dmytro Klyots
🔁Ivan Nesterenkoout: Igor Gorbach
87'
🔁Maksym Boykoout: Jakov Basic
88'
88'
Muhammed Jobe
⚽Bogdan Kushnirenkoassist: Vladlen Yurchenko
89'
Vasyl Kravets
90+2'
90+2'
M. Jarju
90+3'
🔁Muhammed Jobeout: Vasyl Kurko

Match stats — Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets

59%Possession41%
18Shots8
5On target1
11Corners2

Line-ups

Zorya Luhansk 4-2-3-1
  • 1O. SaputinG
  • 44I. PerdutaD
  • 77B. KushnirenkoD
  • 3V. KravetsD
  • 39Artem MachelyukD
  • 8K. DryshlyukM
  • 18M. BoykoM
  • 88S. BahM
  • 30I. NesterenkoM
  • 27D. JelavićM
  • 28P. BudkivskyiF
Substitutes
  • 25V. RybakG
  • 4G. EskinjaD
  • 10JuninhoD
  • 40ÍtaloD
  • 5A. JanjićD
  • 14A. GlushchenkoM
  • 11I. GorbachF
  • 80V. YurchenkoM
  • 21J. BašićM
Coach: V. Skripnik
Chornomorets 4-2-3-1
  • 12C. AniagbosoG
  • 60M. MelnychenkoD
  • 24M. JarjuD
  • 74M. FarinaD
  • 27O. PushkarevD
  • 18G. RobakidzeM
  • 30Muhammed JobeM
  • 11K. PopovM
  • 10A. AvagimyanM
  • 13V. FaraseenkoM
  • 99C. MbaF
Substitutes
  • 35M. KovalG
  • 7D. AlefirenkoM
  • 5V. KurkoD
  • 21V. KlymenkoM
  • 8D. KlyotsM
  • 52S. YarmolaD
  • 20Nikita StepovyiM
  • 4Magomed KratovD
  • 16N. BaydaG
Coach: R. Grigorchuk

Form going into Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets

Zorya Luhansk

Premier League

  • W3-1away to Livyi Bereh12 October 2026

Chornomorets

Premier League

  • L1-2FC Kharkiv10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ukraine Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Zorya Luhansk125341415-118
11Chornomorets11236813-59

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets

  • 23 August 2025Chornomorets 2–1 Zorya LuhanskCup
  • 14 December 2024Zorya Luhansk 2–1 ChornomoretsPremier League
  • 10 August 2024Chornomorets 0–1 Zorya LuhanskPremier League
  • 14 April 2024Zorya Luhansk 1–0 ChornomoretsPremier League
  • 1 November 2023Chornomorets 4–1 Zorya LuhanskCup

The result against the call

Zorya Luhansk beat Chornomorets 2–1. The model had made a win for Zorya Luhansk its most likely outcome, at 53%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Maksym Boyko 27' for Zorya Luhansk, Christian Mba 45+3' for Chornomorets, Bogdan Kushnirenko 89' for Zorya Luhansk.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Chornomorets a 33.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 24.1% after a win, 32.6% after a draw, 36.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 36.8%, 3.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Zorya Luhansk v Chornomorets has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 46% / 29% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 53% / 26% / 21%: the biggest move is Zorya Luhansk's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. Zorya Luhansk win53%▲ +7
  2. Draw26%▼ −3
  3. Chornomorets win21%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.